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Berdych and Cilic are both on the back of horrible performances in the first round of the ATP World Tour finals, losing 6-1 6-1 to Wawrinka and Djokovic respectively. Of course, whoever loses this will surely be out of the qualification race.
I was very disappointed in Berdych, he was useless two days ago against Wawrinka despite the fact that he was on a very good run of form since the US Open, reaching finals and winning them, beating Top 15 players. It seems though as inconsistency is the key word to Berdych`s season, he had some highs but also played some of his worst tennis in years in the summer – early autumn and again two days ago. Yes, Wawrinka put on a strong performance, but Tomas looked slow, powerless, not consistent from the baseline and even tired. His serve was way off pace and that is always going to be a huge problem for Tomas.
Cilic did not play much better, getting schooled 6-1 6-1 by Djokovic. He has the excuse that Nole is Nole and can always hand these kind of beatings even to in form players, but Cilic did not play well and the most worrying fact for him is that he`s not playing well for a long time now – exactly since winning the US Open. He did win Moscow, but it wasn’t an all around excellent performance – good, but not great.
Bet on Tomas Berdych vs Marin Cilic with the best World Tour finals odds at Pinnacle.
Berdych leads the H2H 5-4 (3-2 on hard), but Cilic dominated Berdych in amazing fashion this season, winning both meetings the last two meetings in straight sets – 3-0 in Wimbledon, 3-0 in US Open. Even more, Berdych looked totally clueless in both defeats.
I was tempted to go with Cilic here because he owned the H2H against Berdych recently, but I don`t think it would be wise to bet on a guy who showed so much inconsistency lately. I reckon this will be a short match and my reasons are clear cut: both guys said they did not feel good in their first round matches, both are making a lot of errors. The logical probability is that one of them will manage to improve, while the other will keep struggling and eventually concede an ugly loss in 2 sets – because if you do not play your best tennis at this level, you simply can’t compete with these top guys.
My tip is under 24,5 games and the odds on this pick are dropping. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Marin Cilic 5-7 3-6 – but I won’t be shocked if the result would be the other way around (even if this might seem to make no sense).
Pick: under 24,5 games
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.16
Event date: 12 November
