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Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic meet in a Monte Carlo quarterfinal that should be played mostly on serve, despite the slow clay in Monaco.
Berdych`s Round 16 win against Bautista Agut was his 24th out of 24 matches played against Top 10 opponents this year and the 21st one in straight sets – unbelievable stats for Tomas, who has been ruthless against lesser adversaries this season. However, no matter how good he looked against such players, he was not able to get past Top 10 players this season, losing 5 out of 6 matches and only beating a recovering Nadal in Australian Open.
Raonic was in top serving shape this week, allowing just two break points and one break of serve in his two matches – both against Robredo, one of the better clay courters and returners on tour. Milos continues his excellent 2015 form and looked very solid against Sousa and Robredo, despite losing a set against Tommy.
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The Head 2 Head stats show a 3-1 advantage for Raonic in direct matches, but all meetings were played on hard. Milos won the last clash last year in Paris, but it was a very thight 6-3 3-6 7-5 victory. Hard to say that any player has a Head 2 Head advantage in terms of styles of play. Raonic does lead 3-1, but on clay Tomas should have a slight edge to balance things out – even though Milos doesn`t look to have any king of issues on the surface.
My first instinct was to go with a first set tiebreak, but Berdych was not as consistent as Raonic on serve and on this slow clay that kind of bet is harder to win. I reckon the value lies on Raonic, especially taking into account Berdych’s huge problems against Top 10 players this year, but also looking at the Head 2 Head score. It should be close, but Raonic has the edge as far as I`m concerned, he`s in the best shape of his life, while Tomas seems unable to do the job against top guys anymore.
For a close match, the odds on Raonic are crazy and I don`t think they will stay this high until match time. My tip is Raonic to win. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Milos Raonic 6-4 3-6 6-7.
Live streaming for Berdych vs. Raonic available at Bet365.com for all funded accounts.
Pick: Raonic
Odds: 2.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.90
Event date: 17 April
