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Red hot Tomas Berdych takes on Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open quarterfinals and the Czech player must surely feel this is his biggest chance to defeat Rafa and reach another Grand Slam semifinal.
Berdych was not at his usual best last year, especially in the second part of the season, looking somewhat tired and unable to generate his famous power on the serve and forehand – at least not to a level that would trouble the top players. Tomas however started 2015 guns blazing, reaching the Doha final (lost to Ferrer, but played excellent tennis) and blowing out all opponents here at the Aussie Open. Berdych did not lose a set against Falla, Melzer, Troicki and Tomic – pretty impressive considering the fact that he met two solid, in form players in Troicki and Tomic. Berdych is serving lights out and got his power back, so it`s safe to say he`s playing pretty much his best tennis right now.
Rafa started the season with a loss to Berrer at Doha and is still struggling after missing most of last year. The Spaniard had some shaky performances here in Melbourne, alternating good tennis with moments of downside, hitting short balls and making errors. Nevertheless, he played his best match of the tournament last round against Anderson, winning in 3 sets – it has to be said though that Anderson chocked after losing the first one (which he should have won) and dropped his level a bit.
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The Head 2 Head stats could not be more telling here. Nadal leads the H2H 18-3 (10-3 on hard), including winning the last 17 meetings. In the previous 7 meetings Rafa only lost 1 set and did not even allow Berdych to reach a tiebreak. The score in sets is 39-10 for Nadal. The matchup and H2H is obviously in his favor, it is well known that Berdych is one of his preferred opponents, so Berdcych will have an extra obstacle to overcome tonight – he has to figure out how to play Nadal, he did not beat him (or even seriously challenged him) since 2006!
The popular bet here is Berdych and looking at what I wrote so far you might think I`m going with that, but I will tip Nadal to win this one. Tomas is playing great tennis but he`s still yet to defeat a top class opponent and showed against Ferrer in Doha that his current best might not be enough anymore. Rafa is not at his best, that is true, but he has 4 matches under his belt that surely helped him to regain rhythm and form – which could be seen in his performance against Anderson. The H2H stats are also a key aspect, Berdych just can’t play Rafa – he played him when he was in top form, he played him when Rafa had injuries, still could not even get close.
I reckon the odds are going way too high on Nadal here so I will pick him to win – as long as he does not play like he did against Smyczek, he should pull it off. Considering how well and quick he came back from injuries in recent years, I can see him at least repeating the performance against Anderson and that, along with the matchup, should be enough. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Rafael Nadal 6-7 6-4 3-6 4-6.
Pick: Nadal
Odds: 1.63 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 27 January
