Betdistrict.com
Not the most anticipated clash in a day filled with quality matches at ATP Monte Carlo, but there’s good betting value to be taken in this third round match.
Tomas Berdych defeated Stakhovsky 6-4 7-6 in the previous round, a classic solid performance from Tomas against a dangerous player. The season has been great for Berdych so far, he`s playing some of the best tennis of his career – however, 2015 can be split in two sections for him. The good part, he played absolutely amazing against inferior players. Top, top class consistency for Berdych who not only defeated, but blew out everybody outside the top ten. The bad part, he was a non factor against top guys, losing everytime he met a Top 8 player, despite his overall A+ form.
Berdych won 23 out of 23 matches against players outside Top 10 this season and lost 5 out of 6 against players from the Top 10 (his only victim, Nadal at the AO). If winning 23 out of 23 against opponents out of Top 10 isn’t enough, here’s another stat: Berdych lost just 4 (four!!) sets in these meetings.
Bet on Berdych vs. Bautista-Agut and claim your 100% welcome bonus at Bet365!
Roberto Bautista-Agut must be the worst and most boring player in the Top 20, but his consistency is allowing him to claim a ranking which is much higher than his talent. The Spaniard usually takes care of lesser opposition but doesn’t have the tools to challenge the top guys. His 3-13 record against Top 10 players has to be one of the worst ever for a player ranked 16th in the world. Here in Monte Carlo he did the job as usual against Becker (6-0 6-2) and defeated Kohlschreiber in three sets, a real thriller: 6-7 6-3 7-6. He`s having a mediocre season so far – rather bad than good.
The Head 2 Heads reads a 2-2 tie, but Berdych leads 1-0 on clay and won the last meeting, last year at Roland Garros: 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-4. The Head 2 Head doesn’t say much, truth to be told it`s curious that 2 of Bautista’s 3 Top 10 wins came against Berdych, but Tomas really played some poor tennis when those two wins came, while Bautista was in better overall form than he is now.
Odds on Berdych are going up, but that is a big mistake by the punters as far as I`m concerned. When you look at Bautista’s inability to challenge the top guys on the tour and when you look at Berdych`s 100%, 23 out of 23 percentage (with just 4 sets lost) against players out of the Top 10 this season, the stats pretty much add up to one conclusion – Berdych should win and he should do it in two sets.
I expect another straightforward, consistent win by Berdych against a player that doesn’t have too many weapons to trouble him. My tip is Berdych to win with a 1,5 set handicap, can`t see his run stopping against Bautista-Agut and the odds are excellent on this bet. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Roberto Bautista-Agut: 6-4 7-6.
Live streaming for Berdych vs. Bautista-Agut available for players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Berdych -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.18 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.44
Event date: 16 April
