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Old foes Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer will play their 20th Head 2 Head meeting when they meet in the Rome Masters quarterfinals.
Berdych is in brilliant form this season and he`s adding every day to his unbelievable record against players outside the top 10. I may be starting to sound like a broken record, bringing these stats into discussion everytime Berdych plays, but you can not ignore the fact that in 2015, Tomas won 30 out of 30 matches against players outside Top 10, barely losing a few sets. Exceptional consistency from the Czech player, but on the other hand he struggled against the big boys, losing 7 out of 9 (7 out of 8 if we discard a Raonic retirement in Monte Carlo). Last week Tomas was handed a heavy defeat by Nadal, but he bounced right back this week in Rome – ruining Donati and defeating an inspired Fognini in a 3rd set tiebreak.
Federer has played arguably his best two matches of the clay court season this week, defeating Cuevas and Anderson in two sets each, playing some really good tennis – despite the fact that Rome is one of his worst tournaments, he does not like the slow clay here and never won the event. A welcome preparation ahead of Roland Garros for Roger, but he still needs to sort some things out as he is not quite at his best level. Berdych will be a good test to evaluate exactly where he stands.
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The Head 2 Head is 13-6 for Federer (3-0 on clay) so it looks pretty straightforward, especially considering that Roger won the last two meetings – including a 6-4 6-0 semifinal win this year in Indian Wells. However, the Swiss maestro always had problems against Berdych and there were many occasions in which he lost big matches to him, or barely escaped with the win. Tomas has the game and the needed tennis to put Federer under pressure.
The 6-4 6-0 win in Indian Wells doesn`t hold too much relevance, as Federer was playing his A game and it was a match played on hard courts. On this slow clay and not at his optimal level, Federer is set to have some problems against a red hot Berdych that is usually a big threat to him. Given Berdych’s record against Top 10 players this season he might well lose this, but he won’t go down without a fight.
Expect Berdych’s forehand and powershots to often put Federer in a corner and Tomas will be there to take advantage of Roger’s inevitable errors – errors that Federer is making at this particular moment and on this particular surface. This could be a very tight one and my tip is over 22 games to be played. 7 or 8 units seems like an appropriate stake for this pick. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Roger Federer 6-3 6-7 4-6.
Live streaming for Berdych vs. Federer available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.32
Event date: 15 May
LOL Thomas against another top 10 opponent this year. I thought Fabio might break the flip side of that streak yesterday as Berdych had to fight off some break points in that first, and I believe last, service games of that last set. They fans really tried to will Fabio to victory. Great resolve from Thomas, and a stellar tie break record this year. It will be interesting to see if he can force any of these sets to a breaker, including a possible 3 set. Aside from his subpar record against top 10 opponents he needs to correct his usually reliable forehand, and maybe his choice of outfit. He was spraying a lot more errors than winners yesterday off that side and that dog won’t hunt against club Fed. Awesome match ups tomorrow, even with the 2 walkovers. A true delight for any tennis fan. The over play does look appealing here.
Looking at the Result against Fognini one might say that Berdych struggled, but Fognini played really well. As you said, it was actually impressive how Tomas finished the job. Main reason for this bet is the matchup. Berdych always gave Federer a fight and with the slow clay, this should compensate Berdych’s record against Top 10 players this year. But Federer also needs to show up, it would be really ugly if Tomas won 7-5 6-3 or something similar.
very good tip IMO, over is a lock. I bet it and it is 3-3 in first set, going according to plan.