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Surprise semifinal here in Melbourne between Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka. The swiss is the man on fire after defeating Novak Djokovic in 5 sets and is the bookies’ favorite, but things might not be so simple for him against a top clas, seasoned and in form opponent. Surely a thrilling encounter here, with great opportunity for a winning prediction.
Tomas Berdych was my pick for the dark horse of the tournament a couple of days ago, and the Czech did not disappoint, routing David Ferrer in 4 sets in the quarters without too much trouble (6-1 6-4 2-6 6-4). Previously in the tournament, Berdych had an easy time defeating Nedovyesov, De Schepper, Dzumhur and Kevin Anderson without losing a set. Indeed, the opposition was not top class, but Tomas won all sets with 6-4 or less and was impressive in dismantling the huge Anderson serve in the 4th round (6-2 6-2 6-3). In the last years Berdych clearly showed he is close to the top guys, defeating players like Djokovic or Federer in Grand Slams and playing major quarterfinals, semifinals or even finals (Wimbledon 2010). Despite losing in the Doha 1st round to Karlovic in his first tournament of the season, Tomas is in brilliant form right now – serving fantastic, returning better than he ever did, moving well and of course hitting that huge forehand.
Stanislas was coming in the Australian Open on the back of a title run at Chennai, where he showed very good tennis, and the swiss confirmed his form here in Melbourne. Wawrinka improved a lot recently and after losing two 5 set Grand Slam thrillers against Djokovic last year, he finally managed to beat the Serb in a huge quarterfinal upset. Nole was the big favorite to win the tournament (and rightfully so), but he seemed a little off at times two days ago and Wawrinka was just brilliant to take advantage. The swiss has the best backhand in the world right now, he is serving very well and moving better than ever. His improved movement is the biggest key to his recent success. Previous to the Djokovic win, Wawrinka defeated Golubev (ret in 2nd set), Falla (4 sets), had a walkover in the 3rd round and edged Robredo in the 4th in a tight three setter.
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The H2H is 8-5 for Wawrinka, with the swiss winning the last three encounters, all of them last year, including beating Berdych in the London ATP finals. However, this H2H does not suggest any matchup problems for Berdych, he can play Wawrinka, form and surface are usually making the difference between these two.
While Wawrinka is in great form and had that monumental win against Djokovic, I am rating Berdych as the favorite in this encounter and I just love the odds he is getting. He has played more consistent tennis over the course of this tournament and, very importantly, he has the experience of playing Grand Slam semifinals, an edge that Wawrinka does not have. I am also convinced that the Djokovic win took a lot from Wawrinka in terms of fitness, it`s grueling to play 5 close sets against a brilliant athlete like Djokovic – I don`t think I ever saw a player like Wawrinka recovering after a similar encounter. It should be a close game in the start, “Stan the man” maybe has the slight advantage in momentum, but in the end I expect Berdych to make use of Wawrinka`s emotions and tiredness and push the game in his direction. Expect both guys to be solid on serve, but Berdych has more chances to break with the returning capabilities he showed in this tournament. Stan is not a top returner.
My pick is Berdych to win this in 4 or 5 sets, something like 7-6 4-6 7-6 6-4. The odds are really great, this is at worst a 50-50 match (though I rate it at least 55% – 45% for Berdych), so we also have nice value. I really do not see Wawrinka as the superior player in this stage of the Australian open (and he`s not), so at these odds I`ll go with a high 9 unit stake on the Berdych to win bet, for a very solid return of investment.
Pick: Tomas Berdych
Odds: 2.20 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.8
Event date: 23 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 3 for 5 in Australian Open tips
