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Tommy Robredo is seeking to continue his new found form when he meets Milos Raonic in the Monte Carlo 3rd round, but he will have to recover from a huge beating that Milos gave him less than a month ago.
The Spaniard was way below par this season, but he is showing signs of improvement – before Monte carlo he played a decent tournament in Indian Wells, beating Dimitrov and losing against today`s opponent, Raonic. This week in Monaco, Robredo played arguably the best tennis he played all year – Tommy defeated Seppi in three sets and followed that up with a 6-1 6-1 win over Granollers. There is still a lot work to do though – Tommy is still far away from his best level of tennis and today he will need to prove he can still beat the top guys, something he did not do in a pretty long time.
Raonic didn`t think twice before taking care of Joao Sousa in his second round opener, delivering a classic 6-3 7-6 win without facing a single break point. I really enjoyed Raonic’s game so far this season, he`s continuing the emergence he had in 2014 and he actually took it to the next level – starting defeating top guys like Nadal. Raonic was always one of the most consistent players on tour, but his inability to win against Top 10 guys was a problem.
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The 6-3 6-2 blowout handed by Raonic to Robredo in Indian Wells was not the first such result between the two. Milos leads the Head 2 Head 3-0 and, surprisingly, leads 2-0 on clay as well. He actually had a very easy game against Tommy last year in Barcelona, a straightforward 6-4 6-3 win, with Raonic playing worse than he is now and Robredo playing better.
Listen, Robredo played better than usual in this tournament, but he`s still nowhere near his optimal level. On paper the surface should be a key advantage for him, especially the slow clay in Monte Carlo, but the reality is visible in the Head 2 Head. Raonic had little problems with Robredo on clay even in much more favorable circumstances for Tommy. Looking at the consistency of Raonic, his clearly superior level of play and his superior power, I can`t see him losing a set today. I doubt Robredo can break the Raonic serve and I also doubt Robredo can consistently keep his own.
The Head 2 Head is pretty telling here, Robredo is having problems against Raonic’s serve and power. The difference in form between the two could hardly be higher, so my tip here is Raonic to win 2-0. There`s obviously a degree of risk involved with a bet like this, Robredo is a fighter, but I just can`t see how he could play better tennis for a whole set and the odds are surely worth a solid investment. Prediction: Tommy Robredo – Milos Raonic 6-7 3-6.
Live streaming for Robredo vs. Raonic available for players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Raonic-1,5 set hc.
Odds: 2.45 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.6
Event date: 16 April
