Tonga – Georgia

Tonga against Georgia might not be the highlight of the 2015 Rugby World Cup second day, but the match might just hold the best betting value for punters. With the Pool also containing New Zealand, Argentina and Namibia, it will be critical encounter for both teams, as it will surely decide the third place in the group – and give the winner at least the chance to dream of qualifying, given the fact that Argentina is struggling with injuries.

Tonga is looking to build on the last World Cup, when they recorded a colossal upset, beating France 19-14 and also getting past Japan. Indeed, the Pacific side has improved a lot in the last half decade and even if they still have virtually zero chances to progress from the group stages, they are one of the sides worth keeping an eye on. Tonga has been in fine form prior to the World Cup, beating Romania in a Test friendly and also downing Japan and USA in the Pacific Cup, where they finished third.

Georgia also had a memorable campaign in the last World Cup, getting their first ever RWC win, against Romania. The Georgians have progressed arguably even faster than Tonga and their fantastic forwards, along with their scrum power, allow the Georgians to make every game a physical one – wearing down inferior opponents and keeping scores respectable against better adversaries. Unlike Tonga, Georgia struggled a bit in test matches recently, but they were impressive earlier in the IRB Nations Cup, where they won again against their main rivals Romania.

Bet on Tonga vs. Georgia and claim your 100% welcome bonus at Bet365.com now!

Lineups:

Tonga: 15 Vunga Lilo, 14 Telusa Veainu, 13 Will Helu, 12 Siale Piutau, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Kurt Morath, 9 Tane Takulua, 8 Viliami Ma’afu, 7 Nili Latu (c), 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Steve Mafi, 4 Lua Lokotui, 3 Halani Aulika, 2 Elvis Taione, 1 Tevita Mailau.

Georgia: 15 Merab Kvirikashvili, 14 Tamaz Mchedlidze, 13 Davit Kacharava, 12 Merab Sharikadze, 11 Giorgi Aptsiauri, 10 Lasha Malaghuradze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Mamuka Gorgodze (c), 7 Viktor Kolelishvili, 6 Giorgi Tkhilaishvili, 5 Giorgi Nemsadze, 4 Konstantin Mikautadze, 3 Davit Zirakashvili, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili.

The same things are at stake for both sides here – the winner will be set up nicely to finish third and at least hope for the second place, even if that almost surely won`t happen. The losing side however will feel that they blew the RWC Campaign from the first match. Tonga defeated Georgia 24-9 in Tbilisi last year so they will draw confidence from that test match, even if it was a rather peculiar result – with Tonga playing closer matches with Georgia’s rival, Romania, which is a weaker team. Georgia will hope to have an edge due to already playing at the Gloucester Kingsholm Stadium recently, which always counts in International Rugby.

Tonga is the better rugby nation between the two, but Georgia is very close and always underrated. The Georgians will not go down easily, they will make the game slow and physical and Tonga doesn`t have enough weapons to break Georgia down easily. Words from Tonga’s camp said that they won’t be afraid to engage Georgia in the physical game, so I don`t expect the Pacific side to try and change the gameplan towards wing play.

This should be a close game, look for a lot of kicking, scrums, tackles and generally a “play it safe” approach, given how much is at stake. At the very least, Georgia should protect the defensive bonus point (losing by no more than 7 points). My tip is Georgia +10,5 points – which means Georgia can lose by a margin of a penalty and a converted try. The under 40,5 points bet might also be a good idea, but I`m sticking with the handicap. Odds are dropping and the line is moving down. Prediction: Tonga – Georgia 18 – 16.

Pick: Georgia +10,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 19 September