Tonga – Namibia

Tonga had high hopes for this World Cup, with plans of finishing third, but the loss against Georgia will force them to play the only RWC match of the day, against Namibia, with the sole purpose of avoiding the wooden spoon in Pool C.

Tonga’s 10-17 defeat at the hands of Georgia shocked many people, but truth to be told Georgia is a very underrated team and played a really solid game against the Pacific side. Tonga just could not get over Georgia’s brilliant pack and scrum. Now, with 10 days of rest, Tonga will look to show their true face against the worst team in the group, Namibia. Fly-half Kurt Morath assured the fans that Tonga has analyzed the mistakes made in the Georgia game and has focused solely on Namibia in the past week.

The Africans are the worst team in Pool C and probably the second worst in the Rugby World Cup, but that did not stop them to play a brilliant game against New Zealand. Sure, they lost 14-58, but the result was far away from the 100 point drubbing many were expecting – including, to some extent, me. Namibia played a very brave game, defended well, showed their strength in the forward-based game and even scored a try, along with three penalties – penetrating New Zealand’s half surprisingly often.

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Team news & lineups:

Tonga will miss instrumental captain Nili Latu and will make 9 changes to the side that lost against Georgia. A tired Namibia was also forced to make 8 changes compared to the team that took on New Zealand.

Tonga: 15 Vungakoto Lilo, 14 David Halaifonua, 13 Siale Piutau (co-captain), 12 Sione Piukala, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Latiume Fosita, 9 Sonatane Takulua, 8 Viliami Ma’afu (co-captain), 7 Jack Ram, 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Joseph Tuineau, 4 Hale T Pole, 3 Sila Puafisi, 2 Aleki Lutui, 1 Soane Tonga’uiha.

Namibia: 15 Chrysander Botha, 14 Johan Tromp, 13 Danie Van Wyk, 12 Johan Deysel, 11 Russel Van Wyk, 10 Theuns Kotze, 9 Eneill Buitendag, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Rohan Kitshoff, 6 Jacques Burger (c), 5 Tjiuee Uanivi, 4 Janco Venter, 3 Johannes Coetzee, 2 Torsten Van Jaarsveld, 1 Casper Viviers.

Listen, the underdogs have done very well in this Rugby World Cup and clearly the Tier 2 and 3 nations are starting to close the gap. Namibia was one of the sides that impressed, but this has not suddenly made them contenders in this group. The Africans remain naive at times and they meet a solid, much better team that wasn`t so horrible in the first match – losing because of a stronger than advertised Georgia and there were also some dubious calls against Tonga there.

The most important fact though is that Namibia will not be able to play at the same intensity with just 4 days between the New Zealand match and this one. Playing against the All Blacks is the most exhausting experience you can get in Rugby and the Namibians really gave it their all. They just don`t have the depth and match-experience to come back with a similar level after just 5 days. Being forced to rest 8 players and with the other 7 surely very tired, I can`t see Namibia holding their own for more than a half against a hurt animal like Tonga.

Look for the Pacific side to lead by 6-10 points at half time and run away with a 25-30 point win in the end. My tip is Tonga to win with a 21,5 point handicap. The spread is pretty high, so I will only invest a reasonable 7 unit stake on this bet. Prediction: Tonga – Namibia 35-9.

Pick: Tonga -21,5
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.65
Event date: 29 September