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It’s that time of year again, the Snooker World Championship is here and it should be a treat for fans and gamblers alike. First of all some general ideas. The snooker world championship has some distinct characteristics that make it different from all other snooker tournaments. The first thing is the format. If most tournaments are now looking for shorter formats like best of 7, that encourages risky play, the world championship sticks to its traditional format so we have:

– First round: best of 19 frames;
– Second round: best of 25 frames;
– Quarter finals: best of 25 frames;
– Semi-finals: best of 33 frames;
– Final: best of 35 frames.

This format impacts the game in a lot of ways, so much so that it needs to be analyzed differently that the other tournaments. First of all the play in the first round is in two sessions and not one, giving some time for a player that starts off badly to recover. If a player is in a bad day it does not necessarily need to be the end of the tournament. This leads to the idea that surprises are less likely to happen compared to short format games.

The second thing that sets the World Championship apart is its importance in the eyes of the players. That seems obvious but it needs to be said. For players like Ronnie O’Sullivan for example, or Mark Williams the world championship is THE tournament, the others are mostly to keep up the form. Top 16 players are very motivated in this competition, some to climb in the rankings, some to achieve a good result maybe for the first time, other to recapture lost glory, others to beat new records. The motivation is there, it is not a factor to even consider in yout betting analysis or tips. All players are focused, but who can best handle the pressure? Snooker is a game of precision but it is also a game where the psychological element is more important than in any other. Some players, like Mark Selby for one example, thrive under pressure, play their best game when up against the wall while others like, in the past, Ding Junhui or even Ronnie O’Sullian couldn`t handle it – losing the very advantage that natural talent gives them. Live betting can come in handy if you anticipate the impact of pressure.

Important in snooker betting is also the head to head. In most cases it will be balanced but look for the exceptions. Don’t just look at the matches, look at the total number of frames played and won between the two players, the percentage of frames won can give a nice idea of the dynamic between the two players. Like in tennis, the style of play is also very important in long snooker games. Fast players like O’Sullivan tend to be inconvenienced by slower players that take their time at the table like Mark Selby. Some players are aggressive, they risk long distance shots like Mark Williams, others wait for the opponent’s mistake.

And now to take a look at what is happening at this competition in 2015. As soon as the 2014 edition ended, the bookies placed odds on the next edition. Ronnie O’Sullivan is again seen as the big favorite with odds around 3.40 to 3.65. Before the draw was announced I thought these odds were simply bad, way too low, now they almost seem right. But let’s see the draw.

The first part of the draw has current reigning world champion Mark Selby with what I believe is one of the most unlucky draws ever. In the first round he takes on Kurt Maflin, a very talented player that never achieved his full potential. Maflin’s story is interesting in itself, but the thing to take into account is that he is a strong break builder with a decent safety game. He played Selby twice and actually won once in 2014 in the German Masters 5-3. This year he managed a semifinal in China Open after defeating Ali Carter, Mike Dunn, Robin Hull and Shaun Murphy, losing to Selby 6-3. In the qualifiers for the World Championship he defeated David Grace, snooker legend Steve Davis and Fergal O’Brien. All in all it should be an interesting match for Selby, the 1.14 odds not being justified. In fact any odds in this sport that is smaller than 1.30 (personally I believe 1.50) has little to no value. If Selby manages, as he should, to get past Maflin, he will play the winner between Stephen Maguire and Anthony Mcgill. Maguire is the favorite even if he tends to alternate between brilliant performances and incredibly poor matches, as he has done for most of the year. Mcgill is just not at Maguire’s level and a surprise is pretty unlikely.

The quarterfinal pairing for these two matches is an interesting one. In the third game of the draw veteran Joe Perry takes on the talented young Chinese player Zhang Anda. Perry always seems to find his form in the world championship and everyone who has seen his game against O’Sullivan last year can see what his potential is. But he is getting a little old and his consistency is not what it used to be, he showed some recovery in form towards the middle of the season but it is difficult to say whether it will be enough to see him through a couple of rounds. Zhang Anda is 23 years old and has yet to make a significant impact on the snooker community. The talent is there but he does not seem to have the composure needed to play at a high level. His most famous match is against all time great Stephen Hendry right at the Crucible where he lost dramatically in a decider 10-9. Perry should go through this match but as a betting tip avoid high stakes, look for handicaps.

The favorite to reach the quarterfinals is Shaun Murphy who was drawn against Robin Hull in the first round. Murphy has had a good season with solid gameplay and good results, victories over most top players and he comes to the Crucible with a decent chance. Robin Hull should not be a problem for the Brit, the difference in quality is high and a 3.5 handicap at 1.60 and above is worth considering. A game between Perry and Murphy in the second round would be very interesting with Murphy the favorite, but should be a close clash. The first quarter is shaping up to be a very close match between Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy.

Another one of the real contenders for this year’s title is Neil Robertson. He is a complete player, and in my opinion the one with the highest potential of all players on the tour today. He has a complicated draw. The first game is against Jamie Jones, a surprise from last year but not really a very solid player. The second round would be a meeting with the winner between Ali Carter and veteran Alan McManus with Carter the favorite. It will be interesting to see Ali Carter back at the Crucible after his health problems and I hope to see him at his best. In the quarters these players could meet Barry Hawkins (favorite against Matthew Selt, -1.5 handicap is interesting here) and Mark Allen or Ryan Day (probably the closest first round match two experienced players, Allen very aggressive, Day more tactical). Robertson looks good to win this quarter but he is going to have to work for it.

In the second part of the draw we have three players with real chances for the title. The favorite Ronnie O’Sullivan has by far the easiest draw out of all the main players. If he himself could have placed his name in the draw he would have chosen this spot. He plays first round against Craig Steadman, first time at the world championship, 32 years old. This should be a warm up match for O’Sullivan and no problem. The second round should see him face one of veterans Matthew Stephens or Mark Williams, both good players but with very bad records against O’Sullivan. The possible adversaries for the quarters are Ricky Walden, Graeme Dott (very interesting first round match the odds of 2.20 on Dott have interesting value) and Stuart Bingham and Robbie Williams. Bingham has been playing bad snooker lately so for me Dott is the favourite to face O’Sullivan in the quarters, but again, Ronnie is a clear favorite for the semifinals where the hard part should begin. (I should mention that I can’t stand Ronnie O’Sullivan and I tried to be objective here as much as I could but take it with a grain of salt).

The other quarter from the second part of the draw is much more interesting with names like Ding Junhui, Judd Trump, John Higgins. Ding plays Mark Davis in a very interesting first round match and a surprise here is possible as Davis is capable of some amazing snooker especially is his long distance pot is working. Ding is not at his best form, even after a pretty good tournament in China, he really needs to up his game for this. The winner of this match will play the winner of the duel between John Higgins and Robert Milkins. Higgins is not at a very high level right now ever if he has had a couple of good results this year his game just does not have the same consistency as five years ago. He should beat Milkins, another veteran on the tour, but he will have problems advancing very far in the tournament if his game does not improve in a major way.

Another player with what seems like an easy draw until the quarters is Judd Trump. With an amazing form prior to this competition, a lot of people see Trump as the man to beat in the Crucible this year. With amazing wins over O’Sullivan, Murphy, Maguire this year, Trump’s confidence should be high. A first round match against Stuart Carringtonn should not be a problem to set up a meeting with either Marco Fu or Jimmy Robertson (with Fu the favorite). This should not be a problem either for Trump in his way to the quarters. We should see a quarter final game between Trump and Ding if no surprises occur.

In order to finish up this preview & analysis, some conclusions are in order. Due to his undeniable talent and relatively easy draw in the first rounds O’Sullivan is the favorite to take this title home and I see him playing a very tight game against Trump in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Neil Robertson should come up on top, even in a remake of the semifinal from last year against Selby. Don’t forget that live betting in snooker almost always brings more value that pre-game odds and you should exploit this. Lastly, let’s hope for a good tournament. As a fan, I can’t wait for it to start!

Semifinals prediction:
Selby – Robertson
Trump – O’Sullivan

Final prediction:
Robertson – O’Sullivan

Winner: Ronnie O`Sullivan.