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Gambling Inside a Sure Bet

Sports gambling arbitrage is a fun and lucrative way to participate in the gambling world. Identifying arbitrage, arb our sure bet opportunities is no easy task. The best way is to go to an arb provider that does the heavy lifting, like BetSlayer.com. These arb companies find arb opportunities and present them in an easy-to-use format. A company, like BetSlayer.com, will show you the optimal wager amount at each bookie based on the amount you want to risk. For example, if you want to wager £100 on a Chelsea v. Man City arb, the sure bet could look like this:

2-way win the match:

  • Man City 1.9 at PaddyPower wager £55.81 to return £106.04
  • Arsenal 2.4 at William Hill wager £44.19 to return £106.04

This arb has a nice return of 6%. But, can you have some fun within this arb? You can tweak the amount you bet and still produce a return on both sides. Plus, you will have a rooting interest on one side. To gamble within the sure bet, you could change the wager amounts as noted below:

2-way win the match:

  • Man City 1.9 at PaddyPower wager £57 to return £108.30
  • Arsenal 2.4 at William Hill wager £43 to return £103.20

Now, you have a rooting interest within the arb. You make more money if Man City wins the match and produces a bigger 8.3% return. But, If Arsenal pulls off the upset and wins the match, then your return is 3.2% which is still positive. So, by adjusting the wager amount, you now have a rooting interest.

When would you do this? Isn’t the point of arbitrage gambling is to make money no matter the outcome. You would do this for two reasons:

  1. To have fun within the Arb. You want a rooting interest or you “feel good” about one team. You could change the wager to adjust the return one way or another.
  2. One of the teams is a large favourite. So, you could adjust the return based on the more likely event that the heavy favourite is going to win.

For item number 2 above, let’s use an example of the NBA where the LeBron James and Anthony Davis led Los Angeles Lakers are playing at home against the Detroit Pistons. The Lakers would be heavy favourites in this game. So, a 2-way sure bet for £100 may look like:

  • Lakers 1.30 at PaddyPower wager £84.34 to return £109.64
  • Pistons 7.0 at William Hill wager £15.66 to return £109.64

The Lakers are such big favourites in this scenario. It may make sense to shift most or all of the winnings onto the Lakers. You could adjust your return by doing the following:

  • Lakers 1.30 at PaddyPower wager £85.7 to return £111.41
  • Pistons 7.0 at William Hill wager £14.30 to return £100.10

In the above example, you’ve shifted all of the winnings onto the Lakers and pushed your return up from 9.6% to 11.4%. In this example, you are giving up a pretty good arb to gain a little more based on the favourite winning. This approach makes sense if you identify the odds are off for the favourite. i.e. the Lakers 1.3 is much higher at PaddyPower than other bookmakers or if you have a “good feeling” on the favourite.

Overall, shifting the return to one side of the wager can allow for a little gambling fun or can allow for maximization of an arb while introducing risk for a lower (yet still positive) return. In both scenarios, it is important to never introduce a loss into the equation. Without introducing the risk of a loss, the money earned from arbitrage gambling will continue to grow no matter how you approach the sure bet.