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Sports gambling arbitrage is a fun and lucrative way to participate in the gambling world. Identifying arbitrage, arb our sure bet opportunities is no easy task. The best way is to go to an arb provider that does the heavy lifting, like BetSlayer.com.  These arb companies find arb opportunities and present them in an easy-to-use format.  A company, like BetSlayer.com, will show you the optimal wager amount at each bookie based on the amount you want to risk.  For example, if you want to wager £100 on a Chelsea v. Man City arb, the sure bet could look like this:

2-way win the match:

• Man City 1.9 at PaddyPower wager £55.81 to return £106.04
• Arsenal 2.4 at William Hill wager £44.19 to return £106.04

This arb has a nice return of 6%. But, can you have some fun within this arb?  You can tweak the amount you bet and still produce a return on both sides.  Plus, you will have a rooting interest on one side.   To gamble within the sure bet, you could change the wager amounts as noted below:

2-way win the match:

• Man City 1.9 at PaddyPower wager £57 to return £108.30
• Arsenal 2.4 at William Hill wager £43 to return £103.20

Now, you have a rooting interest within the arb. You make more money if Man City wins the match and produces a bigger 8.3% return.  But, If Arsenal pulls off the upset and wins the match, then your return is 3.2% which is still positive.  So, by adjusting the wager amount, you now have a rooting interest.

When would you do this?  Isn’t the point of arbitrage gambling is to make money no matter the outcome.  You would do this for two reasons:

1. To have fun within the Arb. You want a rooting interest or you “feel good” about one team.  You could change the wager to adjust the return one way or another.
2. One of the teams is a large favourite. So, you could adjust the return based on the more likely event that the heavy favourite is going to win.

For item number 2 above, let’s use an example of the NBA where the LeBron James and Anthony Davis led Los Angeles Lakers are playing at home against the Detroit Pistons.  The Lakers would be heavy favourites in this game.  So, a 2-way sure bet for £100 may look like:

• Lakers 1.30 at PaddyPower wager £84.34 to return £109.64
• Pistons 7.0 at William Hill wager £15.66 to return £109.64

The Lakers are such big favourites in this scenario.  It may make sense to shift most or all of the winnings onto the Lakers.  You could adjust your return by doing the following:

• Lakers 1.30 at PaddyPower wager £85.7 to return £111.41
• Pistons 7.0 at William Hill wager £14.30 to return £100.10

In the above example, you’ve shifted all of the winnings onto the Lakers and pushed your return up from 9.6% to 11.4%.  In this example, you are giving up a pretty good arb to gain a little more based on the favourite winning.  This approach makes sense if you identify the odds are off for the favourite. i.e. the Lakers 1.3 is much higher at PaddyPower than other bookmakers or if you have a “good feeling” on the favourite.

Overall, shifting the return to one side of the wager can allow for a little gambling fun or can allow for maximization of an arb while introducing risk for a lower (yet still positive) return.  In both scenarios, it is important to never introduce a loss into the equation.   Without introducing the risk of a loss, the money earned from arbitrage gambling will continue to grow no matter how you approach the sure bet.

Nothing to shout about in March. The month was like it wasn’t :).

Here are my bet by bet statistics for February 2021. Nice month :).

Here are my detailed bet by bet statistics for the month of December, 2020.

Hey guys, Rostick here. First of all I hope you and your loved ones are all OK during these difficult times. Make sure to stay safe and protect others!

That being said, I reckon this is a great time to get to read more for those who have some time to kill. Here are 7 books which I enjoyed and can wholeheartedly recommend.

1. Meditations (Marcus Aurelius) non-fiction

A book I feel every person should read in their lifetime. The Stoic philosophy has been a pillar of mankind for more than 2000 years, and remains applicable today – be it in the everyday life of an individual, or in psychology. The popular cognitive-behavioral therapy is deeply rooted in Stoicism. Furthermore, gaining insight into the inner thoughts and torments of a great Roman Emperor (the last of the Five Good Emperors) can only make for a fascinating read.

There are multiple translations of the Meditations. The easiest one to read is the Gregory Hays translation. A more academic one is by A.S.L.Farquharson, which contains a marvelous section of notes to put things in context and enhance your understanding of the words written by Marcus Aurelius. I have read this Farquharson translation, and while it definitely challenged me, I felt I was left with the best possible understanding of the “Meditations”.

2. White Nights (Fyodor Dostoyevsky, 1848) fiction

The perfect introduction to Dostoyevsky. A short story following a troubled young man dealing with the torment of unrequited love. A mix of romantism and realism taking place in the magnificent St. Petersburg of 1848, and Dostoyevsky makes sure to capture the allure of the beautiful city. This has the potential to stir feelings of sadness, regret, loneliness, or sheer pain. It can just as well stir feelings of awe, appreciation, wholesomeness, insightfulness, or it can send certain individuals on a journey of self discovery.

“May your sky always be clear, may your dear smile always be bright and happy, and may you be for ever blessed for that moment of bliss and happiness which you gave to a lonely and grateful heart.”

3. Discourses of Epictetus (Epictetus, Robin Hard) non-fiction

‘About things that are within our power and those that are not’. Arguably the most important and influential lecture on philosophy and Stoicism, and the mother of all self development books. Epictetus teaches us how to be happy, ethical, kind and fulfilled – and the interwinding between the four. His Discourses have been a great influence on the previously mentioned Meditations of Marcus Aurelius. You should probably buy the Discourses, Fragments, Handbook translation by Robin Hard, the consensus is that it`s the best one. Besides Epictetus and Marcus Aurelius, you should also read Seneca if you are interested in the topic.

4. Silent Patient (Alex Michaelides, 2019) fiction

Alicia Berenson’s husband, Gabriel, returns home one night and she shoots him five time in the face, then never speaks another word. Theo Faber, a criminal psychotherapist, is obsessed with unraveling the mistery. A classic page turner for sure, and easy to read. The final twist gave me chills. One of the best books of 2019, winner of multiple awards.

5. Where the Crawdads Sing (Delia Owens, 2018) fiction

“For years, rumors of the ‘Marsh Girl’ have haunted Barkley Cove, a quiet town on the North Carolina coast. So in late 1969, when handsome Chase Andrews is found dead, the locals immediately suspect Kya Clark, the so-called Marsh Girl. But Kya is not what they say. Sensitive and intelligent, she has survived for years alone in the marsh that she calls home, finding friends in the gulls and lessons in the sand. Then the time comes when she yearns to be touched and loved. When two young men from town become intrigued by her wild beauty, Kya opens herself to a new life–until the unthinkable happens.” synopsis from goodreads.com

Beautiful. One of the best fiction book in recent years. Many avid readers regard this to be one of the best books in years.

6. Pale Blue Dot (Carl Sagan, 1994) non-fiction

Not quite “Astrophysics for dummies”, but not far from it. It`s not for ‘dummies’, but the brilliant Carl Sagan puts the Universe and its existential questions into an intelligible form for the regular reader, and succeeds in a big way. A deep dive into perception, perspective, the Universe and our place in it. A look into humanity and our future. Published in 1994, many of Sagan’s visions for the future already came true. The Bible for anyone passionate about the Cosmos, but an enlightening and likely enjoyable read for any person on this planet.

7. The Chain (Adrian McKinty, 2019) fiction

Finished this one yesterday, the classic Summer Beach read, just … not on the beach … this year. Some of the above titles could be more challenging or specific reads, so I will end the list with a simpler book with a great premise. Here`s the synopsis from goodreads.com.

“You just dropped off your child at the bus stop. A panicked stranger calls your phone. Your child has been kidnapped, and the stranger explains that their child has also been kidnapped, by a completely different stranger. The only way to get your child back is to kidnap another child within 24 hours. Your child will be released only when the next victim’s parents kidnap yet another child, and most importantly, the stranger explains, if you don’t kidnap a child, or if the next parents don’t kidnap a child, your child will be murdered. You are now part of The Chain”.

All the best, everybody! Rostick.