Raptors – Heat

The Toronto Raptors will host the Miami Heat in one of the most important matches left to be played in the NBA regular season, as both teams still have everything left to fight for.

After a rough stretch in the middle of the season, Toronto (48-31, 27-13 home) is playing some great basketball right now, winning 9 of the last 11 games and reaffirming themselves as possibly the second best team in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is now tied with Washington for the 3rd seed with just 3 games left to go and will be boosted by the return of Kyle Lowry. The star point guard came back two days ago after a 5 week break and helped Toronto win in Detroit.

Miami (38-40, 17-22 away) had an amazing run in January / February, winning 13 games in a row and coming back from the brink into playoff contention. However, the Heat have not been the same team since their top guard Dion Waiters got injured a few weeks ago. Miami is just 4-5 since Waiters injured himself and they are now 0.5 games behind the last playoff spot in the East.

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Team news:

Toronto is finally fully healthy, as they don`t have a single injury issue. That`s a pretty amazing advantage to have at this late stage of the regular season, when most teams are usually fatigued and banged up.

Miami on the other hand will be without Waiters, Winslow and McRoberts, while Babbitt is questionable for tonight, meaning Miami could miss 3 of their 5 starters.

A win today would send Miami into a three way tie for the 7-9 spots in the East with the Bulls and the Pacers, while a loss would almost ruin their chances to finish Top 8. Expect a lot of intensity for Miami, but the same can be said about Toronto, who are tied for the 3-4 spots and will be very motivated to finish 3rd (which would mean avoiding Cleveland in the 2nd round).

The Heat are not the same team they were at the start of the year, they aren`t playing that great recently and have to travel to Canada, taking on a red hot, healthy opponent which has the same level of motivation.

Toronto is looking really interesting with their new Big 3 of Lowry, DeRozan and Ibaka (alongside Valanciunas). They are confident, healthy, are playing well, are a better team than Miami and should win this fairly comfortable at home. It might not be necessarily a blowout, but a win in the region of 10-15 points for the Raptors would definitely make sense.

My tip is Toronto to cover the 6 point handicap. Miami is often involved in close games and 3 of their 5 losses since Waiters got injured were by less than 6 points. However, 10 of Toronto’s last 11 wins came by more than 6 points. I believe Miami will take a heavier beating today against one of the best teams in the league. Prediction: Toronto Raptors – Miami Heat 112 – 100.

Pick: Raptors -6
Odds: 1.99 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 7 April