Tottenham – West Ham

This will be an interesting derby battle between two tactical maestros in West Ham`s Sam Allardyce and Spurs` Andres Villas Boas.

Tottenham has started the season strong, winning 4 games and dropping points only against Chelsea (1-1) and Arsenal (0-1). Villas Boas is looking to create a title worthy team here and he is putting much more emphasys on defense than in the last years, knowing that defense wins you silverware in today`s football. Tottenham conceded only 2 goals in 11 matches in all competition, a fantastic stat. Up front hey have new boy Soldado which gets the job done and scored the necessary goals. Spurs plays nice, balanced football with solid discipline and tactical approach.

Tough start for the visitors in the league, very disappointing considering that they brought in players like Downing, Carroll, Joe Cole or Razvan Rat over the summer break. West Ham is having difficulties scoring so far, only 4 goals in 6 rounds, mainly due to the prolonged absence of Andy Carroll. On the other hand they performed better in defense, conceding only 5 goals and for that reason they at least managed to get a few points here and there. West Ham has not scored away from home in the Premier League for more than 6 hours. The visitors are currently on 18th place with just 5 points.

Team news & lineups

Tottenham will miss Rose, Kaboul, Lennon, Adebayor and Capue, mostly attacking players. West Ham has fewer squad problems but they are hit very hard in the offensive setup: Andy Caroll will miss out and Joe Cole is highly doubtful. Diarra is the only other absentee for West Ham.

West Ham (4-1-4-1): Jaaskelainen – O’Brien, Tomkins, Reid, McCartney – Noble – Jarvis, Morrison, Nolan, Downing – Petric.

Surely you could see where this analysis was going. Things are extremely simple here. The two teams are very solid at the back and have trouble scoring, especially West Ham. They played 12 combined games this season and only ONE finished with over 2,5 goals (West Ham – Everton 2-3). With goal differences of 6-2 and 4-5 in six rounds for these two sides, the under 2,5 bet looks extremely solid and the odds actually seem funny. There`s no catch here, there`s a clear reason for such high odds. The logic of the bookies and the general public is that Tottenham will destroy West Ham and will score at least 3 goals. This could or could not happen, I`m guessing there`s a higher chance it won`t happen given the fact that Spurs played other weak teams and still produced low scoring games. Plus, there is the high number of offensive missings for both sides. Last season both encounters went over 2.5, but things have changed since then.

Expect West Ham to park the bus and frustrate low-scoring Tottenham with their sound defense. A goal for the visitors seems very unlikely given their offensive struggles and Spurs` top class back line. It will be a rugged fight on the tactical front and the two managers know all to well how to close down the opposition. I`m happy to go with a low scoring game at great odds. I`m supported by all the facts, so personally I will invest high stakes knowing I have made the professional choice. My pick is 2-0 for Spurs.

Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.08
Event date: 6 October

Editor Facts

• Rostick has won his last four Premier League tips.