Toulon – Toulouse

Toulon and Toulouse will square off in a highly anticipated Top 14 clash at Stade Velodrome, with both teams having plenty left to fight for in their last 4 regular season matches. Toulon usually plays at Stade Mayol, but they go to Velodrome for some of their big matches, and this is one of them.

Toulon is currently 5th in the standings and must protect a Top 6 position in order to reach the playoffs, as there are plenty of teams in with a chance to overtake them. The hosts have just been knocked out of the Champions Cup by Clermont, losing 29-9 away from home, and that was the end of coach Mike Ford – as Richard Cockerill replaced him as manager. On the bright side for Toulon, they have been very good at home lately, winning 3 in a row with solid performances.

Toulouse is having a season to forget, sitting on the 12th place in the Top 14 table and only having an outside shot at reaching the playoffs – though a win today would see them back in serious contention. The visitors are on the back of a 16-41 loss at Munster in the Champions Cup quarterfinals, yet another miserable display for them and their 7th loss in 10 matches in 2017.

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Team news & lineups:

Toulon will make a few changes in the forwards department, but nothing major and their back line is scary good, with no interference there.

Toulouse will not have some of their best player in the starting lineup here, due to fresh injuries / rest. Losing guys like Doussain, Fritz, Dusatoir, Ghiraldini, Huget, Bezy or Baille has the potential to be a disaster for Toulouse here.

Toulon: Halfpenny; Mitchell, Bastaraud, Nonu, Habana; Trinh-Duc, Tillous-Borde; Gill, Vermeulen, Smith; Suta, Kruger; Chilachava, Guirado, Chiocci.

Toulouse: Medard; Palisson, David, Fickou, Perez; McAlister, Marques; Faasalele, T. Gray, Camara; Tekori, Maestri; Aldegheri, Marchand, Kakovin.

Neither team has met expectations this season, but that being said Toulon did play better for pretty much the entire year, they are the better team and have the all important home court advantage – even if they don`t play at their regular Stade Mayol venue.

Toulon won 8 out of 10 at home this season, often by big margins, while Toulouse has been absolutely abysmal away from home. The visitors lost 9 out of 11 road matches they played in the Top 14 this season, plus 3 of 4 in Europe.

I don`t think the managerial change will hurt Toulon much, Ford’s departure was made by mutual consent and Richard Cockerill is working at Toulon for some time now, being respected and liked by players. If anything, I expect it to have a positive impact.

Look for the hosts to be more explosive here and dominate the kicking game, a department in which Toulouse has been exposed lately. Halfpenny`s ability to nail penalties from 50+ meters should give Toulon 3-6 extra points in what is set to be a physical game, points which Toulouse won`t have. Toulon`s top class veterans should have the rugby IQ to exploit the handling and tactical errors which Toulouse has made in abundance in 2017.

The most important thing though might be the fact that this is a weakened Toulouse side and it`s just hard to see their reserves surviving on the road against one of the better teams in French Rugby. Losing a number of top guys will really hurt Toulouse here.

Toulon beat Toulouse 32-15 on the road in the previous meeting this season. Having home court advantage and meeting a decimated team of Toulouse, the scoreline could be similar or even higher this time around.

Toulouse is not looking like beating anybody on the road, they are in total disarray right now, miss many of their best players and really don`t have many arguments to make this a close game. My tip is Toulon to cover the 8,5 point spread handicap. Odds on the bet are currently dropping. Prediction: Toulon – Toulouse 29 – 13.

Pick: Toulon -8,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 9 April