Toulouse – Connacht

Toulouse and Connacht will square off in Pool 2 of the European Rugby Champions Cup, with qualification fully open ahead of this last round.

Connacht normally only needs a defensive bonus point to advance, while Toulouse needs to win by more than 7 points (denying Connacht of the defensive bonus point) in order to qualify from the second place. If Toulouse gets an unlikely offensive bonus point (4 tries), then they only need to win by more than 2 points to surpass Connacht in the standings.

Toulouse is doing very well right now, winning both of their Top 14 matches in the last three weeks and climbing up to the 4th place in the French Top division. The team is definitely playing better than in the start of the season and that was expected to happen at some point, because the talent in the squad is top class. The hosts have done OK in the Champions Cup as well, but unfortunately for them Connacht and Wasps did even better (actually Toulouse failed to beat any of these two in 3 games so far). The 21-23 loss at Connacht in the first round is still haunting Toulouse, as they let that one slip from a winning position.

The surprise Pro 12 champions Connacht are having a miserable season domestically, sitting on the 8th place with 4 wins in 12 matches and coming after a 22 point loss at league leaders Ospreys. The poor record has much to do with injuries and Connacht will be happy to finally get some key players back. However, even with injuries, the Irish side has done brilliantly in the Champions Cup, winning 4 out of 5, with the only loss coming away at the best team in the group – Wasps – a 15 point loss, with Wasps edging it late in the game.

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Team news & lineups:

Toulouse have altered their lineup a bit for this clash, but mostly due to tactical resons. Maxime Medard is out Connacht gets back key men Carty and Roux, as well as other important pieces like Fox-Matamua, Robb and Heenan.

Toulouse: 15 Yoann Huget, 14 Arthur Bonneval, 13 Yann David, 12 Gael Fickou, 11 Paul Perez, 10 Jean-Marc Doussain, 9 Sébastien Bézy, 8 Francois Cros, 7 Thierry Dusautoir, 6 Joe Tekori, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Census Johnston, 2 Christopher Tolofua, 1 Cyril Baille

Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 Niyi Adeolokun, 13 Peter Robb, 12 Craig Ronaldson, 11 Matt Healy, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 John Muldoon (c), 7 Jake Heenan, 6 Nepia Fox-Matamua, 5 James Cannon, 4 Quinn Roux, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Denis Buckley

The 13,5 / 14,5 point spread line looks to be extremely high, as Connacht definitely deserves more respect and actually has an honest shot to win the game. The line is definitely influenced by Connacht’s recent domestic results, but that hasn`t stopped them from performing in Europe and they now have a much stronger lineup with key guys returning to action.

While it`s true that both sides are traditionally good at home, making home court advantage really important, that`s about the only thing that validates such a high line. Fact is that Connacht can beat anybody in Europe this season. Even against Wasps on the road they did well and the 15 point loss could have easily been a 7-8 point loss against a better team than Toulouse.

Connacht leads the Champions Cup in carries, meters, clean breaks, defenders beaten and possession this year, which is an incredible feat and speaks volumes about the quality of this team – as well as about their offensive style of play and attacking prowess.

Connacht will get a number of key players back ahead of this game and that should make a huge difference for a side that struggled with injuries all season.

Toulouse needs a big win and they know it, which might lead to mistakes, especially as Toulouse has a history of crumbling in key moments. It actually happened a couple of months ago in Connacht, when they blew a double digit lead and were run off the pitch in the end. If Toulouse starts feeling pressure, Connacht is the perfect team to take advantage with their fast pace, line breaking and counterattacking ability.

Toulouse will look for a more physical game and will rely on their scrum, where they should dominate, but Connacht can hold its own in that department, as seen in the previous meeting. The visitors are better in the running game and will often test Toulouse with their speed. They should get enough points that way to claim a losing bonus point and finish second in Pool 2.

My tip on this clash is Connacht to cover the 14,5 point spread. I reckon they have played too well in the competition to suffer a trashing here and with many players back from injury, they might even challenge for the win – even though I do think Toulouse is too strong to lose this at home. Prediction: Toulouse – Connacht 28 – 24.

Pick: Connacht +14,5
Odds: 1.80 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 22 January