Toulouse – La Rochelle

With the Six Nations taking a short break this weekend, much of the focus in European Rugby has reverted to the French Top 14, where Toulouse will take on league leaders La Rochelle.

It has been an up and down season for Toulouse, a team which alternated poor results with excellent performances, but it has mostly been disappointing. Despite owning a lot of talent, Toulouse is just 8th in the Top 14 and the recent form is not encouraging, with 2 losses in a row – both of them coming after disappointing performances.

La Rochelle is the surprise package in the Top 14 this season, as they were definitely not expected to be joint league leaders after 18 rounds. However, the visitors have played excellent rugby all season and it became clear long ago that they aren`t going anywhere. La Rochelle is in brilliant form, winning 6 matches in a row, by far the longest current winning streak in the Top 14.

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Team news: Toulouse struggled with injuries all season and will miss a few players yet again. They get back a number of key guys who were out with their national teams last weekend, but it remains to be seen how fit they will be. La Rochelle should line up in a similar way to how they did last round in their 19 point win over Stade Francais.

Toulouse is the better team player for player, but that doesn`t mean anything, as this season has proved it. La Rochelle has played better rugby all year, they are more disciplined and better organized. THey are definitely playing much better rugby than Toulouse lately.

Home court advantage is always a massive factor in the Top 14 and will give Stade Toulousain an edge, but it has to be said that La Rochelle has been hands down the best road team in France this season. They even got some huge scapls away from home, like their win at 5th placed Touloun just two rounds ago.

Look for La Rochelle to play solid, error free rugby and take advantage of what Toulouse gives them. The hosts can be dominant during a match, but they also concede way too many penalties and commit handling errors. A well oiled machine like La Rochelle seems like the perfect opponent to take advantage.

Toulouse also has to deal with possible fitness issues for all their players who have been involved in the Six Nations lately, while La Rochelle has less internationals, they are a bit healthier and should be more fresh.

Earlier this season La Rochelle beat Toulouse by 6 points at home and should have done it by more. However, Tolouse was seriously shorthanded in that game, so they can use that as a valid excuse.

This looks like a 50-50 match, with Toulouse arguably a slight favorite due to home court advantage – though that advantage diminishes with La Rochelle being the best away team in Top 14.

I expect a close game here that could go either way and my tip will be La Rochelle to cover the 5,5 handicap. Prediction: Toulouse – La Rochelle 20 – 19.

Pick: La Rochelle +5,5
Odds: 1.95 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.60
Event date: 5 March