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Tskhinvali from Georgia and FC Botosani from Romania will square off in the reverse leg of the Europa League qualifying first round. The Georgians are rated as the second best team in this tie, but they managed to get a 1-1 draw in Romania.
Tskhinvali finished 4th last season in Georgia, they are a defensive, hard working side – not too much talent, but good discipline, as we saw in Botosani. They were lucky to escape with that 1-1 draw as they didn`t really have any chances to score, while Botosani put a couple on the stats sheet – but the Georgians will surely take that result!
Botosani finished 8th last season in Romania and got to the Europa League only due to most teams above them being banned due to financial difficulties. Botosani was actually closer to relegation than to a “fair” Europa League spot, so that says a lot. The hosts changed almost the whole team in the summer break and chemistry problems were obvious in the first leg – with the coach also stating that the team is not ready yet for the new season. In the press conference before this match he seemed confident, but it could well be just a trick to boost morale.
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Team news: The two teams will likely line up in a similar manner to how they did in the first leg. Botosani has a couple of injuries, but nothing major.
Just like in the first leg, I`m struggling to understand the odds here. Indeed, Tskhinvali was lucky to escape with that 1-1 draw in Romania, but now they are in a good position and will surely be more dangerous at home. Botosani is a little better as a team, but they have zero European experience, they have big issues with chemistry in the squad and are overall a weak team, not that much better than Tskhinvali. Both sides are dirt poor and you just can`t give a team like Botosani these kind of odds, 1.30 at home and 1.55 away against a top 5 side in Georgia.
The visitors could qualify or take this to extra time with a draw and they will surely be ecstatic if they manage to win it by 1 goal. Botosani is known to be a home team and a defensive side – they haven`t won by more than 1 goal on the road since 2013, when they were in the Romanian second division (excluding friendlies, of course)! That`s 40 consecutive official away games in which they didn`t win by more than 1 goal and they played many sides similar or weaker than Tskhinvali, not having to travel to Georgia! Hard to argue against those stats.
In these circumstances the +1 asian handicap on Tskhinvali at the current odds seems like a logical and safe investment, so that will be my tip. There`s also the fact that Botosani (and everybody in Romania) seems to take a win for granted, which is very strange in my eyes and might mean not respecting the opposition – which surely happened in the first leg as well. Prediction: Tskhinvali – Botosani 1-1 (1-2 extra time).
Pick: Tskhinvali (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.72 @ SmartLiveSports
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.76
Event date: 9 July
