Turkey – Iceland

Turkey has a massive chance to finish on the 3rd place ahead of Netherlands in the Euro 2016 qualifying Group A, but they will need a draw against Iceland to guarantee themselves the playoffs. Iceland is coming to Istanbul with no pressure, as they are qualified since the previous National team round-up.

Turkey won 3 of the last 4 qualifying matches, including a 2-0 win in Czech Republic a few days ago and managed to turn around the qualification scenario. The hosts are now two points ahead of Netherlands, also having the advantage in Head 2 Head matches, so a draw would be enough to sent Turkey to the playoffs. The recent form really got Turkey out of trouble but it has to be said that some of the wins were not convinving – including the recent one in Czech Republic, with Turkey scoring at virtually every shot of goal, against the run of play.

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Iceland lifted their foot of the gas a bit after qualifying, failing to win any of the last two matches, drawing at home with Kazakhstan and Latvia. They were actually leading Latvia 2-0 on Saturday before being equalized, proving a clear lack of focus and implication. Surely the Islanders will take some lessons with them and put on a better performance in this high profile showdown in Konya.

Iceland wasn`t at its best level in the last couple of matches, but it will be a different scenario this time around, with the atmosphere around the match providing extra focus. Iceland needed to control the game against Kazakhstan and Latvia, while in Turkey they can sit back and use their main weapon, the counter attacking game – and I would not be shocked if they upset a Turkey team that is still not as good as it could be.

Considering the fact that Turkey does not need the win, I strongly feel that the odds on Iceland are pure value. They have the game to win this, no doubt about that, while Turkey will not take any risks, knowing the massive counter attacking threat that Iceland poses. Look for the hosts to play a very cautious game and they would be delighted with a draw.

I do believe Iceland can pull off a real shocker, but I`m sticking with a relatively safer bet. My tip is Iceland +0,75 asian handicap. Prediction: Turkey – Iceland 1-2.

Pick: Iceland (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.31 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.48
Event date: 13 October