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Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will wrap up their trilogy on Saturday night in a fight counting for the WBC Heavyweight Championship of the world, to be held in Las Vegas, Nevada. The first meeting was a draw (Fury won it, but we know how boxing judges are), the second was a convincing TKO by Fury.
Fury (30-0-1, 21 KO) would have preferred to have a unification bout with Anthony Joshua after demolishing Wilder last year, but he was legally forced to give the American his contractual rematch, so here we are, set to see the third fight between these two heavyweights. Fury hasn’t fought since beating Wilder 20 months ago and he went through COVID in the Summer, but the undefeated British champion looks sharp and confident.
Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KO) will also have his first fight since the bout with Fury in February last year. Unfortunately for Deontay, that bout was a disaster for him. He was completely outboxed (just like in the first fight), but this time he was also hurt by Fury, and it was basically a massacre on live TV until the ref stopped the fight in the 7th round. Can Wilder recover from something like that?
Wilder stands at 201cm tall with a reach of 211cm, while Fury stands at 206cm tall with a reach of 216cm. The weight difference is also massive in favor of Fury, who has reportedly put on some extra weight and muscle, and will now have even more pounds over Wilder than in the first two meetings.
Analyzing this fight is no brain surgery. Fury is the better fighter by a mile here, and he proved it in both meetings with Wilder. He beat him in the first, when he was coming off a long layoff and battle with depression and addictions (even though the judges somehow scored it a draw), and he abused Wilder in last year’s rematch.
Fury is vastly, immensely superior in terms of skill, to the point that it’s questionable if he lost a single round out of the 19 he fought against Wilder (except the two in which he was knocked down in Fight 1). His boxing IQ is off the charts. He will run circles, outsmart and outbox Wilder all day. He’ll mix it up and get close, not allowing Wilder the room to operate. It’s predictable. He will not lose a decision. That’s not even a question.
I can see just two possible scenarios in which Fury can lose this fight. 1) If he is back on cocaine, which is quite a stretch, and if we have to resort to that as a counter argument, we’re sitting pretty comfortably. 2) If Wilder catches him with that dynamite right hand, one of the most explosive in heavyweight history.
Wilder will always have a puncher’s chance, but that is simply a risk which we will have to take. If it happens, so be it. Again, if Fury being back on cocaine or Wilder having a puncher’s chance are the only things Fury fans have to worry about, I will say we are golden.
I would also like to mention that this “puncher’s chance” is overestimated in boxing. Fact is an inferior (not to mention smaller!) boxer will very rarely land that miraculous shot to win a match he’s losing, no matter his power. It doesn’t happen as often as we tend to think. We overrate this chance because it gives us hope, keeps us on the edge of our seats in anticipation, so we remember when it happens – but the reality is that it barely ever does. That’s not all: on top of this, Wilder actually did have his one perfect shot against Fury in the first fight, and Fury still got up, despite being in much worse shape back then, and Wilder being much more confident than he is now! So what can Deontay realistically do here?
I’m happy that boxing experts have finally caught up to what I’ve been telling them for years: Fury is the best Heavyweight in the World, and it’s not even close. Unfortunately this means that the odds on him to win are waaaay down compared to the first two fights, but I would still gladly take him at anything above 1.25.
My tip is Tyson Fury to win. I won my predictions on the first two fights, and now I expect we will have a third payday.
Pick: Fury
Odds: 1.46 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.60
Event date: 9 October
