Udinese – Milan

AC Milan will be desperate for points in the clash against Udinese but it won`t be anything new for the struggling visitors, who have been swimming mid-table since the start of the season.

Udinese is currently 15th in the standings, 7 points away from the relegation zone and just like Milan, they could really use some points today. The hosts have failed to win in the last 3 Serie A games but on the other hand they were riding a 4 game undefeated streak before losing 3-0 to Cagliari last round, so their form is pretty decent. Despite being traditionally a very strong home team, Udinese hasn`t posted impressive stats at Friuli this season with 5 wins, 5 losses and 2 draws. However, three of those losses came in a one month span of very bad form (late December, early January), so that puts things in perspective a little bit. Udine is still a very tough side to take on at Friuli.

Milan got a couple of good results in the first few games with Seedorf at helm but the few wins were largely circumstancial: hard worked, lucky and mostly owed to Balotelli, who basically kept the team alive with his winning goals from individual plays. Recently the visitors went back to losing ways, getting beat by Napoli, Atletico Madrid and Juventus in three of the last 5 outings. The team has a poor gameplan, the offense is chaotic and on the road Milan is 3-4-6 in this Serie A season.

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Team news and lineups

Udinese will miss Lazzari and Danilo for this game. Milan is getting healthier and their injury list is down to three players (El Sharaawy, Cristante, Balotelli), but the absence of Super Mario will be a huge blow as he has been instrumental for almost every point Milan got in 2014 while his replacement Pazzini has mostly been a non-factor.

Udinese: Scuffet – Heurtaux, Domizzi, Naldo – Basta, Silva, Allan, Badu, Pereyra – Fernandes – Natale

Milan: Abbiati – Abate, Rami, Mexes, Emanuelson – De Jong, Montolivo – Taraabt, Kaka, Honda – Pazzini

There are so many things working against Milan here. They will miss Balotelli, whose goals brought 3 of Milan`s last 4 wins. They play on the road where they are poor against a very good home team. Also, Milan has the game against Atletico Madrid just three days from now, and that`s the main focus, as qualification is still in the balance after the 0-1 defeat at home. Not lastly, Udinese proved they can beat Milan, winning 2-1 in the Cup just one and a half month ago at San Siro! Taking all things into account it seems highly unlikely that Milan will be able to escape with a win here and there`s clear value lying on Udinese. With a little bit of luck the hosts could end up getting the three points at home. My tip is Udinese Draw No Bet at excellent odds. Prediction: Udinese – AC Milan 1-0.

Pick: Udinese Draw No Bet
Odds: 2.20 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.60
Event date: 8 March