Ukraine – Slovenia

Slovenia will be desperate to improve their away record as they travel to Ukraine in a crucial Euro 2016 playoff first leg match.

Ukraine narrowly missed on the second place in Group C, finishing three points behind Slovakia (and 8 behind Spain). The hosts had a solid qualifying campaign though, racking up 19 points and playing good football, particularly on the defensive end, as they allowed only 4 goals in 10 matches! The last match for Ukraine was a 0-1 home defeat to Spain, only their second home defeat since March 2013 – a timespan in which they won 10 times and claimed 4 draws.

Slovenia was largely unimpressive in the group stage, despite meeting their goal of finishing third behind England and Switzerland. They were never in the hunt for a Top 2 spot and before the last national team roundup they were very close to losing the third place to Estonia, which says a lot about Slovenia’s qualifying campaign. They did the job though and they deserve credit, but the visitors will know that they must improve if they are to have any chance today – Slovenia lost 8 out of the last 10 away matches and they failed to score in 6 of them! Only San Marino and Lithuania failed to beat today`s visitors.

Bet on Ukraine vs. Slovenia with the highest Euro 2016 playoffs odds at 1xBet.com.

Team news & lineups:

Rotan, Stepanenko and Gladkiy are unavailable for Ukraine, while Slovenia has no injuries or suspensions and can field the best lineup.

Ukraine: Pyatov – Fedetsky, Khacheridi, Rakitsky, Shevchuk – Garmash, Sydorchuk – Konoplyanka, Rybalka, Yarmolenko – Kravets

Slovenia: S. Handanovic – Struna, Samardzic, Cesar, Jokic– Krhin, Kurtic – Kampl, Ilicic, Birsa – Beric (Novakovic)

The logical choice here would be Ukraine to win, they are the better team and seem to have all the pieces in place to take care of Slovenia. They are strong at home, while the visitors are an absolute disaster on the road. However, considering that these key matches are never easy and taking into account that the hosts miss a few players, I reckon odds of 1.60 for a straight Ukraine win are not worth the risk.

My bet, however, will still involve an Ukrainean win, but combined with a clean sheet, as the odds are much more valuable. Slovenia has a dreadful away record and is rarely scoring goals on the road, they will surely come here to park the bus, hoping for a 0-0 draw and dreaming to win the lottery on the counterattack. For Ukraine, obviously, the key objective will be not to allow an away goal, so they will not leave themselves exposed – and they will most likely be able to get that clean sheet, considering they did it in 6 out of 10 matches in the group stage and never allowed more than 1 goal in a game, despite meeting Spain twice.

Ukraine should be able to keep a rather poor Slovenia side at bay and also fins the winning goal(s) over 90 minutes of controlled possession and pressure. My tip on this one is Ukraine to win to nil. Prediction: Ukraine – Slovenia 2-0.

Pick: Ukraine win to nil
Odds: 2.30 @ Bwin
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 7.80
Event date: 14 November