U Cluj – Steaua

Steaua Bucharest will win the title with three points today, but Universitatea Cluj would also love to get something here in order to stay safe from relegation. The odds are way off here due to suspicions over motivation and a fixed match, so I reckon a goon analysis will pinpoint some great betting opportunities.

The fixed match suspicions have the following arguments: Steaua has virtually won the league, while U Cluj needs points to avoid the drop. Steaua has been under serious match fixing scrutiny over the last 2 years. Not lastly, Steaua’s manager wife is the agent of a large number of Cluj players.

However, I doubt anything immoral will happen in this game. The visitors might be virtual champions, but not mathematically. If they don`t win here, they would have 7 or 8 points above Petrolul with 3 rounds to go and a direct match on Petrolul`s stadium, so it would be really stupid of them to knowingly jeopardize their title chances. U Cluj on the other hand is safer from relegation than at a first glance. With at least one club failing to get the license for last season, U Cluj now has 3 teams between them and the drop zone and a 3 point cushion. Surely other clubs will also fail to get the license, so really Steaua has as much to fight for as Cluj here, the hosts are not the more motivated team. Lastly, after all the suspicions in the press and from the fans, it would be idiotic from Steaua to go on and fix this match, it might start a big scandal they surely don`t want and need.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

With the match fixing suspicions explained, it all comes down to pure analysis and football factors. Steaua is by far the better team here, they are in a totally different league than U Cluj and are cruising in the Romanian Liga 1 since 2 years now. The visitors are on the back of 3 consecutive 3-0 wins and will try to get that 25th title today. Cluj is a decent side, they were also on a 3 match winning streak before losing to poor Viitorul 1-0 last round, but are lacking quality to challenge the top sides.

Lineups:

U Cluj: Veselovsky – Ciupe, Ninu, Abrudan, Gercaliu – Bucşa, Cristocea – Kovacs, Boutadjine, M. Nicu – Lemnaru

Steaua: Tătăruşanu – Varela, Szukala, Gardoş, Latovlevici – Pintilii, Sînmărtean – Ad. Popa, N. Stanciu, Cr. Tănase – Chipciu

The odds are too high on Steaua here, if not for the fixed match suspicions we would probably see something around 1.50. Steaua actually has similar or higher odds here than much worse teams like Astra, Petrolul or Dinamo had at Cluj, so that`s simply value. This scenario happened before, just 2 weeks ago when Steaua played at Viitorul, and the champions won 3-0. The visitors will not rest any players and have close to a full squad available, so I expect a dominant performance for them, keeping a clean sheet and pressing for the 90 minutes of football to get that winning goal / goals. My tip is Steaua to win. Prediction: U Cluj – Steaua Bucharest 0-2.

Pick: Steaua Bucharest
Odds: 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.38
Event date: 8 May