Uruguay – Paraguay

Uruguay takes on Paraguay in the last round of the Copa America Group C. Paraguay is already qualified, while Uruguay will also qualify if they don`t lose the game by more than 1 goal. This situation applies for the best third placed qualifying spot. To finish second, Paraguay needs a draw, while Uruguay needs a win.

Uruguay has been a huge disappointment in this tournament and they are lucky to have three points so far. They barely beat Jamaica 1-0, trembling until the last second under a Jamaican siege and than were defeated 1-0 by Argentina, barely holding 30% possession. Uruguay did have chances against Argentina, but mostly on breaks and Argentina could have scored more too. The absence of Luis Suarez was expected to have an impact, but not to this extent. Uruguay’s offense has been a disaster, Cavani is totally out of form and the current trophy holders have no clue on the attacking end, relying on a slow pace and long balls.

While Paraguay doesn’t have the same individual quality as Uruguay, they have been much better so far. Paraguay salvaged a late 2-2 draw against Argentina, coming back from 0-2 down and followed that with a 1-0 win against Jamaica – but a much more comfortable win than Paraguay got against the Raggae Boyz. Additionally, Paraguay showed some great character and fighting spirit in this Copa America, something that Uruguay badly lacked.

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Lineups:

Uruguay: Muslera – A Pereira, Gimenez, Godin, M Pereira – Gonzalez, Rios – Lodeiro, Rodriguez, Rolan – Cavani

Paraguay: Silva – Bruno Valdez, Da Silva, Aguilar, Samudio – Gonzalez, Caceres, Ortigoza, Benitez – Santa Cruz, Barrios

Uruguay did show improvement against Argentina, but it was not enough and the overall level of football was still below par. “La Celeste” look tired and one can argue that some players do not seem to want to be here. Paraguay played better football so far in the tournament, they have an experienced lineup and proved that, when the going gets tough, they can rise to the occasion. They also have good counterattacking abilities to punish Uruguay on the breaks if the score is tied towards the end of the game.

Expect a tight game here, with Paraguay eventually getting (at least) the draw to secure a second place, while Uruguay will qualify from the third position. My tip is Paraguay +0,5 handicap. The under could also be a good bet, but the odds around 1.55 are way too low for my taste. Prediction: Uruguay – Paraguay 0-0.

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Pick: Paraguay +0,5
Odds: 1.79 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.32
Event date: 20 June