USA – Canada

USA and Canada will square off in the second leg of this 2019 Rugby World Cup qualifier, after the two teams ended up tied at 28-28 last week on Canadian soil. The winner of this match will qualify for the 2019 RWC, while the loser will be sent to another qualifying playoff against Uruguay.

The United States are looking pretty good ahead of this match in San Diego. Team USA has seen steady progress in the last few years, with rugby becoming more and more popular, and recent results come to confirm this trend. A couple of months ago USA won the Americas Rugby Championship, surpassing Argentina “B” and Canada, a pretty impressive performance. They followed that up with solid performances in the June tests against Ireland (19-55) and Georgia (17-21). USA put Georgia under real pressure at the end, which is a remarkable thing to do against such a strong rugby nation.

Canada was barely able to salvage a 28-28 draw against USA last week, as they were trailing 28-18 with 10 minutes left to go, and they needed USA to get 2 yellow cards in order to pull that off. The Canadians are far from being in a good spot, as they keep losing and losing in the last years. They were horrific earlier in 2017 in the Americas Rugby Championship, finishing 5th (behind Uruguay and Brazil!) and were not much better in the June tests. They lost 0-13 to Georgia, barely passing the halfway line, and they lost 9-25 to Romania despite playing 60 minutes (!!!) with an extra man.

Bet on USA v Canada and get your 100% (100 Eur) welcome bonus at Ohmbet now!

Team news & lineups:

USA will make 5 changes to the lineup that drew 28-28 last week in Hamilton, while Canada will make only one. Neither team will earn or lose much strength though.

USA: 15 Madison Hughes, 14 Mike Te’o, 13 Bryce Campbell, 12 Marcel Brache, 11 Ryan Matyas, 10 AJ MacGinty, 9 Nate Augspurger, 8 Cam Dolan, 7 Tony Lamborn, 6 Todd Clever (c), 5 Nick Civetta, 4 Nate Brakeley, 3 Chris Baumann, 2 James Hilterbrand, 1 Tony Purpura

Canada: 15 Ciaran Hearn, 14 Andre Coe, 13 DTH van der Merwe, 12 Connor Braid, 11 Taylor Paris, 10 Shane O’Leary, 9 Gordon McRorie, 8 Tyler Ardron, 7 Matt Heaton, 6 Admir Cejvanovic, 5 Evan Olmstead, 4 Brett Beukeboom (c), 3 Jake Ilnicki, 2 Ray Barkwill, 1 Djustice Sears-Duru

Canada has steadily went downhill lately, dropping to No 23 in the rankings, below teams like Uruguay, Germany, Russia or Namibia and being in real danger to be overthrown by sides like Portugal or Hong Kong. They have been absolutely dreadful this year and to a rugby observer it was actually a surprise that they didn`t lose at home in the first leg against the USA (albeit Canada was considered the favorite by the bookies). They would have probably lost it if USA hadn’t played 20 minutes with 14 men.

Team USA showed their superiority by drawing the first match on the road, having to deal with two yellow cards as well. They have been a rising rugby nation recently and are definitely playing much better than Canada both long term and short term.

After Canada dominated the early H2H rivalry, they failed to win any of the last 6 direct meetings, dating since 2014 onwards (5 losses, 1 draw). The two teams met twice this year, with USA winning 51-34 in the Americas Rugby Championship and drawing 28-28 in last week`s first leg (both on the road). It`s worth mentioning that Canda was missing key players in that 34-51 defeat in ARC, but USA wasn`t at full strength either.

Canada remains a dangerous team and some might argue that they are actually better player for player than the USA. However, they are just not playing well – it`s not one or two games, it`s years of underperforming, and the actual system just doesn`t work. They make a ton of mistakes, which won`t work well against the USA. The Eagles are physically better than Canada, but (arguably) a little bit less skilled. However, skill gets equaled when Canada makes mistakes, leaving USA to dominate physically.

All in all USA is the better team and is in much better form. These rugby nations are going in completely opposite directions right now and any way you look at it, USA should win. As long as it won`t be just one of those games which defies logic, USA will qualify for the World Cup tonight.

I do tend to believe the United States will cover the handicap here, but it`s cleverly set at 7 points. What’s more, it`s a qualification match, so USA might be very careful when calculating whether they go for a try or kick for 3 points.

Odds of ~ 1.40 for a simple USA victory are good enough for me to bet maximum stakes, so I will lessen the risk and pick the straight win instead of the handicap. My tip and recommendation is to back USA to win with 10 units at anything above 1.35. Prediction: USA – Canada 31 – 21.

Pick: USA
Odds: 1.44 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.40
Event date: 1 July