USA – Portugal

USA will feel confident of getting a result after the first round win against Ghana, but the odds-on favorite Portugal is a hurt animal and will do everything in its power to claim 3 very important points tonight.

I did not expect much from the Americans in this tough group, but they came to play and delivered a massive result against Ghana, showing great character as well, to hit back after being equalized in the 82nd minute. It was obvious before the tournament that USA can produce the goods in offense and they did just that, with some great counterattacking play, but they managed to defend pretty good also, which was a bit of a surprise for me. Team USA does not have the same individual quality like in the past, but they are in good form and a draw today would be a huge step towards qualification.

Portugal was winning a lot of games prior to the World Cup, but they were by no means impressive. THe recipe was composed of some lucky wins, efficiency in front of goals and good defending, an area in which Portugal usually excels. Nevertheless, Portugal’s mediocre level of play was exposed against Germany, an ugly 4-0 defeat, albeit the Seleccao did not have Cristiano Ronaldo at 100%, conceded a dubious penalty in the 12th minute and had a man sent off before half time. This time around Ronaldo is expected to be close to his best level and that will be a colossal boost for Portugal, as the team is obviously heavily dependent on the Real Madrid winger.

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Team news & lineups

Three regulars will miss this one: Altidore for team USA, Pepe and Coentrao for Portugal.

USA: Howard – Johnson, Beckerman, Cameron, Beasley – Brooks, Bradley, Jones, Bedoya – Dempsey – Johansson.

Portugal: Patricio – Pereira, Costa, Alves, Almeida – Veloso, Moutinho, Meireles – Ronaldo, Postiga, Nani.

Portugal has a good defensive setup and USA was decent at the back as well in the first game, but after all Portugal allowed 4 goals and USA one. I really fancy over 2,5 goals to be scored in this one. Portugal absolutely needs to get the three points so they will have to go for it, and having Cristiano Ronaldo fit will strengthen the attack a lot. Against a USA back line which still can’t be trusted, Portugal should be able to produce a fair number of chances. On the other hand, the portugese side will leave more open spaces than usual and they will miss two key defenders, so a good counterattacking team like the USA will surely produce a lot of danger on the breaks. The same can be said for Portugal if they go up 1-0 early, Ronaldo will create havoc on counters. Also, I can`t see time wasting towards the end or any dead moments in the match, as there is no result that would satisfy both sides, not even a little bit.

My tip is over 2,5 goals, the odds are close to evens, so I will go with maximum stakes on this bet. Regarding the final result, I can see USA snatching a draw – but Portugal could get a narrow win as well. Prediction: USA – Portugal 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 22 June