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Utrecht hosts Ajax Amsterdam early Sunday afternoon in the 29th round of the Dutch Eredivisie.
Utrecht had three weeks to remember from mid February to early March … they played incredible football, beating Alkmaar 6-2, Dordrecht 6-1 and drawing with Feyenoord. But the run did not last long and now Utrecht lost the previous two games vs. Cambuur and NAC Breda, allowing 7 goals in these two matches! To follow a 6-2 win over Alkmaar with these two horrible results is incredible. This kind of inconsistency is rarely seen in European football at this level, but after all Utrecht is a team that swims in the bottom half of the table … so they were never going to keep the good run too long.
Hosts do not have any real objective left this season … maybe only to try and push for a top half finish in Eredivisie. Utrecht will not have Zullo and Boyman today in the lineup.
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Ajax is in a similar situation, in terms of not having much left to fight for. Visitors are 8 points behind PSV and 8 points behind Feyenoord so they will almost surely end up in second place. They are in good form but suffered a bit with goalscoring lately … only 1-0 wins vs. Excelsior and Den Haag at home and being knocked out from the Europa League by Dnipro (0-1 away, 1-0 at home and losing in extra time). They did beat Hereenveen 4-1 three rounds ago. Frank de Boer can field his best lineup with the exception of Milik.
Ajax has been a little tentative in front of goal recently so the odds on the under over market are better than expected, I am talking of course about the over. Frank De Boer has been clear that he doesn`t want his side to start slipping despite the lack of any important objective. The way Utrecht has been defending, Ajax seems a lock to score at least a couple of goals … but Utrecht can also bang in one or two, they scored in 6 of the last 7 games and Ajax could be a little relaxed at the back considering that they are not under any pressure.
Expect a free flowing game of football with both teams playing fast and directly towards goal … my tip will be over 2,5 goals. Correct prediction: Utrecht – Ajax Amsterdam 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.64 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.4
Event date: 5 April
