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Friday night football in Spain, with Valencia hosting Deportivo La Coruna in the 27th round of La Liga.
Valencia is 5 points clear of Sevilla for the last Champions League place in La Liga and the hosts do not look like they will concede the 4th position … Valencia is in excellent shape, playing some of the best football we saw them play this season: 4 consecutive wins before a draw in Madrid with Atletico last round … overall 6 wins in the last 8 games. At home Valencia has 6 consecutive games and won 11 of 13 games at home this season, being an absolute beast at their own stadium, able to dominate possession and put big pressure on opponents. For today Mustafi and Javi Fuego will not be in the lineup due to suspensions.
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Deportivo is coming after a 3-4 loss at home to Sevilla … good performance up front but the 4 goals conceded were just too many. It was the 3rd loss in the last 4 matches for Super Depor, the only time they avoided defeat being in a modest 0-0 draw vs. Almeria. The visitors are only 1 point above the relegation zone and any point they can get today would be gold, but with this kind of form it does not seem likely. Helder Postiga is injured for Depor and Toche is questionable.
With an almost complete lineup, with great form, confidence and playing at home, I don’t see how Valencia can miss this chance to keep or increase the advantage over Sevilla. Deportivo’s defense looks in shambles at the moment and seems very likely to collapse under the pressure Valencia is able to put at home. Only Barcelona and Bilbao took points this La Liga season at Mestalla … surely Deportivo does not have the weapons to get in that select company. My tip will be Valencia to win and cover the 1,25 goal asian handicap. Correct score prediction: Valencia – Deportivo La Coruna 2-0.
Pick: Valencia (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 12 March
