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I tipped Basel to get at least a draw in the first leg against Valencia, but honestly speaking I never thought a banged-up swiss side, playing without fans in the stands, will be able to take a 3-0 advantage to Spain – basically ending all of Valencia’s qualification hopes, even if it was a lucky result. Nevertheless, the hosts will surely try to play their slim chance of going through, as stated by the manager and several players in the media.
Valencia`s financial problems finally got to them this year. Again, they had to sell players in the summer, but this time the replacements are of poor quality and Valencia is having its worst season in years. The hosts are on the 8th place in the standings and Europa League is their last chance to do something meaningful this season, but of course it doesn`t look likely for that to happen at the moment. Valencia was awful in the first leg in Switzerland (despite surely not deserving a 0-3 loss) and is in very bad form overall, failing to win in the last 4 games. “Los Che” are on the back of an ugly 0-0 draw at Valladolid over the weekend.
Time and time again Basel has been underrated in Europe, but year after year they are making deep runs into the Europa League and even Champions League. Basel beat Chelsea twice this year in UCL, got past a very solid Salzburg team in the last Europa League round and as previously stated, defeated Valencia 3-0 in the first leg of the quarterfinals even if they were missing half of the regular first 11 players. Basel might not be the most glamorous and spectacular team out there, but they are extremely hard to beat and have an air tight defense. The visitors are on a a 17 match unbeated run and did not concede a single goal in the last 5 matches. Last time out, Basel drew 0-0 at home with FC Thun, but the team still holds a 1 point advantage over Grasshoppers for the 1st place in the league.
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Team news & lineups
Valencia will miss Alves and Ruiz, while Senderos and Costa are questionable. Basel is again ravaged by injuries, though things are looking a little bit better than in the first leg. Stocker, P. Degen, Suchy and Streller are the most important missings for the visitors.
Valencia: Guaita – J. Pereira, Senderos, Mathieu, J. Bernat – Keita, Parejo – Feghouli, Fede, E. Vargas – P. Alcacer
FC Basel: Sommer – T. Xhaka, Schar, Sauro, Aliji – F. Frei, Diaz, Elneny – Delgado, D. Degen – Sio
The odds for Valencia are a pure joke in my opinion, even if Basel will be more than happy to lose a close game. However, the best bet I see here is the under 2,5 goals. Valencia is an offensive team, but lately they had big problems creating chances, a fact we could see in the first leg or in their latest game at Valladolid. Basel however is one of the most disciplined and organized defensive sides in Europe right now and surely they will come here trying to close down their opponents and keep a clean sheet for as long as possible – something which is well within their power.
One might say that Valencia will go all out attack here and leave open spaces, but we all now that in modern football this doesn`t exactly happen, especially in the latter stages of european competition. The hosts will hold the ball but will have a hard time breaking down Basel, while the visitors are not too interested in scoring. Despite the three goals in Switzerland, Basel only had 3 shots on goal. All in all, my tip for this one is under 2,5 goals. The odds are going up (as I said, people expect an all out attack display from Valencia), but my analysis suggests there`s huge value on the under, so I`ll go with high stakes on this one. Prediction: Valencia – FC Basel 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.63
Event date: 10 April
