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After winning 2-0 in the first leg Sevilla will be confident of reaching the Europa League final, but Valencia will try to repeat their fantastic performance from the quarterfinals: 5-0 vs. Basel after 0-3 on the road.
Sevilla’s 3-1 defeat at the hands of Bilbao over the weekend was only their 4th loss in the last 17 games – the rest of 13 all won! However it was a tough one, as Sevilla has lost all chances for a Champions League spot next year, so now this tie against Valencia has their undivided attention. Sevilla is in very good form, their road loss to a strong Bilbao side does not change that fact, and their 13 wins in the last 17 games are surely a remarkable performance.
Valencia’s amazing recovery in the second leg against Basel was pretty much the only bright side for the hosts lately in what has been a grey season for them. 8th in the La Liga standings, Valencia is also in poor form, drawing 1 and losing 2 of the last 3 games, scoring just one goal (in a 1-1 tie with Osasuna).
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Team news & lineups
Valencia`s main goalscoring threat lately, Alcacer, will miss the game, making it that much harder for the hosts to repeat the Basel turnaround. Alves will also miss out, while Mathieru and Bernat are doubtful. Sevilla won`t be able to count on Cristoforo and Cicinho, while Cheryshev and Perotti are doubtful.
Valencia: Guaita – Pereira, Mathieu, Costa, Gaya – Feghouli, Parejo, Fuego, Fede – Jonas, Vargas
Sevilla: Beto – Coke, Fazio, Pareja, Moreno – Mbia, Carrico – Reyes, Rakitic, Vitolo – Bacca
Sevilla is well known to be a high scoring team and Valencia can be dangerous up front as well, but the match-up and the circumstances make this more of a low-scoring game. One might think that Valencia will go all out attack (that`s why the odds on the over are dropping) but I seriously doubt it – they know that if they concede it will all be over, while 2 goals can be scored even in the last 10 minutes, so surely it will be a cautious approach from the home team. Sevilla on the other hand will play it safe, trying to deny goal scoring chances and getting that crucial away goal if they get the opportunity. The last two times these two met it was 0-0 and 2-0, so they proved they can cancel eachother out. Valencia’s poor record in front of goal lately and Alcacer’s absence will also help a lot with a bet on few goals. My betting tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored and I really think that the odds are wrongly set for this clash. Prediction: Valencia – Sevilla 1-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.36 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.88
Event date: 1 May
