Williams – Stephens

Venus Williams and Sloane Stephens will square off on Artur Ashe Arena, with a spot in the US Open women’s final on the table.

The 37 year old Venus Williams is coming after a remarkable win against Petra Kvitova, coming back from a break down in the decider to win 6-3 3-6 7-6. Venus did have some ups and downs in that match (as she often did during the tournament), but she managed to get on top and showed why she has been one of the most consistent players on the WTA tour this season, having won more Grand Slam matches in 2017 than any other woman.

Sloane Stephens claimed an identical win to Venus in the quarterfinals, but she faced a less dangerous opponent. Stephens beat Sevastova 6-3 3-6 7-6 to claim her 13 win on hard courts in the last month (Toronto, Cincinnati, US Open). Stephens opened up her 2017 campaign just two months ago after a foot injury, and she has been sensational on the American hard courts. Here at the Open she defeated Vinci, Cibulkova, Barty, Goerges and Sevastova.

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Stephens leads the H2H 1-0, but the only meeting was back in 2016 at the French Open, so that doesn`t say much. An analysis of styles won`t reveal anything noteworthy either, although Venus might feel it could be easier for her to beat an opponent like Stephens than it was to beat a dangerous big hitter like Kvitova in the previous round.

The two players had a very similar progress so far in the US Open, almost identical – losing the same number of sets (three), playing similar tennis and getting matching results in the quarterfinals. It`s not easy to separate them ahead of this clash.

Venus did seem to have a more difficult draw, especially because of the meeting with Kvitova, and her experience (as well as her consistency this year) are arguments in favor of her winning. But with Sloane Stephens being in excellent form over the last month and playing very well at this US Open, this doesn`t look like it will be an easy one for Venus Williams.

There really isn`t much separating these two in terms of level of play right now, so even though I expect the experience of Venus to eventually prevail, it should happen after an evenly matched clash. A three setter could be on the cards, or at least a tight two setter. With the total games line being pretty low at 22 points, I`m comfortably backing the over here, which can be covered in two sets as well.

My tip is over 22 games to be played and I will make an 8 unit investment on this bet. Prediction: Venus Williams – Sloane Stephens 6-3 5-7 6-4.

Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 7 September