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First round match at the ATP event in Vienna between qualifier Victor Hanescu and Benjamin Becker.
I would have never expected Hanescu to get past the qualies here, he has been in absolutely abysmal form in the last few months, arguably playing the worst tennis in his career and barely passing the first round in challenger tournaments played on clay, his favorite surface. He dropped over 50 places in the rankings to exit the Top 100 and at 33 years old, with his fragile fitness and slow movement, I was thinking this guy is done! On top of that, Indoor Hard is known to be Hanescu`s worst surface, so the fact that he blew out Ignatik, Bozoljac and Taro Daniel in straight sets (without playing a single tiebreak) was a huge surprise.
Benjamin Becker had a pretty good hard court season so far and is coming after two solid performances, a quarterfinal showing at Kuala Lumpour (lost to Gulbis) and a semifinal at Tokyo (def. Sock, lost to Nishikori but took a set from the US Open finalist). Becker is playing good tennis, feeling comfortable on a surface he likes. A very interesting fact in the analysis is that Becker was coached by Romanian Davis Cup captain and former Top 15 player Andrei Pavel, who has been a kind of mentor to Victor Hanescu and knows the Romanian like the back of his palm. Pavel and Becker are not working on a regular basis right now but it is possible that Pavel helped the German with some info..
Take advantage of the best betting coverage and live betting market. Bet on Victor Hanescu vs. Benjamin Becker at the ATP event in Vienna with the top odds by Bet 365.
The H2H is 1-0 for Becker, he won 6-4 6-4 in 2009 at Halle, but for what it counts Hanescu defeated him this year in the German Bundesliga. The matchup analysis will say that both are guys who are strong on serve and nobody holds the matchup advantage – however, the surface is clearly and advantage for Benjamin.
Listen, I know Hanescu very well and if there`s one thing about him, it`s that the effectiveness of his serve determines his performance – if he is serving well he can beat most players on tour (this guy can play tennis), but if the serve is not working, he`s doomed. Considering the fact that Victor did not concede a single break of serve in the qualies against three decent opponents (allowed only 3 break points), I reckon there`s every chance he will put on a strong performance here. Becker is not the kind of guy that can take advantage from Hanescu’s slow movement, this match is likely to go on serve and we should see a tiebreak as well.
Considering the fact that the under/over line set by the bookies (21,5 games) will be surpassed even by a 7-6 6-3, I am happy to tip the over 21,5 games here and I expect the odds to drop / the line to go up. I don`t rule out Hanescu winning, but whoever takes this will not have an easy job. Prediction: Victor Hanescu – Benjamin Becker 6-7 7-6 3-6.
Pick: over 21,5 games
Odds: 1.72 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.48
Event date: 14 October
