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Victor Hanescu and Gilles Simon will square off in the ATP Bucharest second round in what will be a repeat of the 2007 final here, won by Simon in 3 sets.
Local favorite Hanescu is in pretty good form right now. A natural clay-courter, Hanescu had a decent hard court season for his standards (Doha QF, Australian Open 2nd round, Indian Wells 2nd round) and made the transition to clay with a quarter final showing at Casablanca in the last tournament he played (lost to Delbonis). Here in Bucharest the Romanian played a solid first round match against Dudi Sela, 6-3 6-4, being in control for most of the match with a small lapse in focus in the second set. While he`s not in his absolute top form, something he stated himself yesterday, Victor is playing good, solid tennis, with few unforced errors, good first serve percentage and deep flat shots.
Simon had a terrible season so far. After defeating Cilic in the Australian Open second round things went downhill for Gilles, also because of some small injury issues. The frenchman has now lost his last 4 matches on the ATP main draw, including against Del Bonis and Gabashvili in Casablanca and Monte Carlo, the only tournaments he played on clay. I watched Gilles practice a little bit in the last few days and I must say that he really does not look like he’s getting back to form – errors, frustration and poor serving. Of course, training can’t be a 100% indicator for what a player will do on the court, but more often than not training does not lie in tennis. Seeing Simon and Monfils hitting it out, it was a huge difference between them. Gilles had a bye in the Bucharest first round.
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The H2H is 3-1 for Simon and he won the last two direct meetings, but on clay the score is tied at 1-1 with Hanescu leading 4-2 in sets won.
I can’t get past how poor Gilles is playing right now, his form is absolutely terrible. Simon’s 4-8 win-loss record for the season is actually much worse than Hanescu’s 7-9, which speaks for itself. I can`t see the frenchman defeating a solid, in-form player like Hanescu with his current form, especially that Simon is a player of rhythm, relying heavily on not making too many unforced errors – as he can`t really hit too many winners. The odds on Hanescu are pure value here and I trust him to take advantage of the circumstances and complete the job. Even at 32 years old he can still defeat the top guys, proving it this year against Verdasco (Doha) or Anderson (Casablanca), also last year here in Bucharest he defeated Youzhny for a quarterfinal showing, so it wouldn`t be all that surprising for him to get past a top 30 opponent, especially on clay.
I won`t add the home court factor here in favor of Hanescu since Simon loves Bucharest himself, winning the title here 3 times, but even so my tip will be Hanescu to win and I will go with maximum stakes on this bet. The odds are just great and dropping fast. Prediction: Victor Hanescu – Gilles Simon 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Hanescu
Odds: 2.20 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 23 April
