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This might not be the most anticipated clash in the first round at Indian Wells, but I feel it feels some great betting value and we could be in for a nice return of investment.
Victor Hanescu started the season in very solid form, reaching the Doha quarters (def Verdasco, Sousa) and the Australian Open 2nd round (def in-form Gojowczyk), losing in both tournaments after excellent showings against top players (Mayer, Raonic). However the romanian decreased his level of play in the next month, going on to lose 5 of his next 6 matches including against not so strong opposition (Stakhovsky twice, Marchenko, Golubev). The last time out Hanescu lost to Tsonga 2-6 4-6 in Dubai.
Hanescu is a clay courter but he is pretty able on slow hard courts too. His dip in form may well be put on the transition from slower hard courts in Australia to superfast courts like the ones indoor or in Dubai. Indian Wells is not so fast, so it should suit the Romanian better.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Robert had a stellar Australian Open for his standards, reaching the R16 and taking a set for Murray. However he defeated a single top 100 player on the way (Przysiezny) and could not replicate the same form since then. Robert is a streaky player who can, at times, produce good tennis and reach the latter staged of tournaments, but this happens rather rarely. Robert had to play qualies here at the Indian Wells, getting past Giron (6-4 6-2) and Reynolds (7-6 6-7 6-2). The Przysiezny win remains his single top 100 success this season.
I think Hanescu has at least 50% chances to win this match, thus making this bet value. Indeed, he`s in poor form right now but showed excellent tennis this year on surfaces comparable to the one here at IW and there`s a good chance he will increase his level. Even if he doesn`t, Robert is far from being in scary form himself, so the romanian will have his chances. Unforced errors will probably be the key in deciding the winner here and surely Hanescu is the more stable player, with Robert being much more inconsistent and error-prone.
Hanescu is the better player overall so he should probably get more trust from the bookies here. It might be a struggle, but my tip is Victor to advance to the second round for a showdown with Djokovic and considering the odds, I`ll be investing reasonably high stakes. This is the first meeting between the two players. Estimative prediction: it might go to three sets (though I don`t rule out 2-0): Victor Hanescu – Stephane Robert 6-3 5-7 6-4.
Pick: Victor Hanescu
Odds: 2.11 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.88
Event date: 7 March
