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Victoria Azarenka will try to capitalize on Simona Halep’s apparent fitness problems when the two players meet in the 2015 US Open Women’s quarterfinals.
Azarenka has struggled to find her best level of tennis for some time, but the former World number 1 has been on a mission here at Flushing Meadows and now has a huge chance to get herself into a Grand Slam semifinal yet again. One can`t say that Azarenka played her best tennis in these past days, but she is clearly at a good level, improving and getting very close to her “A game”. Azarenka looked very motivated and pumped up in this tournament and she only lost a single set so far, against Kerber in the third round. She`s on the back of a solid 6-3 6-4 win over Lepchenko.
Halep had an up and down year and she looked rather poor coming into the US hard court swing, but a final at Cincinnati (lost to Serena) set her up for a good US Open and she did not disappoint until facing Lisicki in the Round 16. After three easy wins over Erakovic, K. Bondarenko and Rogers, Simona Halep had to play an epic match against Lisicki, a match that she looked like losing for a good 2 hours or so. Halep did not play well (Lisicki actually played rather poor as well), she got injured on her thigh, suffered with heat and was trailing 6-7 5-5, but Lisicki chocked and the Romanian escaped with a 6-7 7-5 6-2 win in a match that lasted over 3 hours. She then proceeded to retire from mixed doubles duty.
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Azarenka leads the Head 2 Head 2-0, demolishing Halep in both meetings, but that holds little relevance as both matches were before 2012, before Halep’s emergence and when Vika was in her best days. Actually, in terms of matchup, I would guess that Halep’s movement on the baseline and her ability to keep balls in play could frustrate Azarenka.
I have a feeling that Halep’s injury against Lisicki was not so serious, otherwise there`s no way Halep would have managed a comeback on that heat, even if Lisicki pretty much killed herself. But, even if it wasn’t, Halep did have physical problems of some nature and it will be extremely hard to jump right back onto the court with a 1 day break against a player like Azarenka, who is showcasing good tennis, has the experience and looked almost demonic in some of her celebrations so far, showing she`s really motivated to do well here. After playing almost 3 and a half hours against Lisicki and looking rather bad in that match, I can`t see Halep posing a threat today, especially since she`s not exactly the biggest fighter on the tour and always prone to retirements.
Azarenka is matching Halep in terms of tennis right now, but she is the fitter player and her motivation seems out of the roof. I reckon Halep had her fair share of fight in the Lisicki match and I would not be shocked to see her retire in this one if things are not going her way. While I don`t expect that from her in a Grand Slam quarterfinal, just to be on the safe side in case it happens, I recommend betting with a bookie like Pinnacle that doesn`t void bets in case of retirement after 1 set.
I have a single problem with this bet and I`m talking about the odds. I would have really liked something like 1.60 – 1.65 here, but apparently the bookies did their homework very well. At 1.48 I will lower the stakes a bit, but my tip remains Azarenka to win. I reckon it`s the best bet here and there`s no point in taking handicaps or unders – especially as the main reason for it is Halep’s injury problem, so Vika would have a big edge in a potential third set. Prediction: Victoria Azarenka – Simona Halep 7-5 6-2.
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Pick: Azarenka
Odds: 1.48 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 3.84
Event date: 9 September
To my knowledge the game is to be played September 9. Halep has a habit of getting a little injury when the game is not going her way so I don’t think it is anything serious. That said, Azarenka is the better player and should win this even with both players perfectly fit.
– The pick is set on September 9th, so I don’t see your point. I clearly stated Halep will have 1 day of rest.
– Halep overreacting could well be true and I stated that in the pick. But the match was really exhausting and she DID have some issues, even if she made herself a drama-queen.
– I`m not so sure Azarenka is better right now, I think she`s at a similar level to Halep, but surely she`s in better condition.
Cheers mate!
Azarenka didn t have the edge in the third set.halep was amazing .a well deserved victory . With pennera won t be an easymatch
The rain was the deciding factor. Azarenka played pretty bad, a lot of unforced errors and pretty much gave the game to Halep. It’s clear that any physical problems from Halep were at the very least exaggerated during the game with Lisicki. Penneta should be a bit tired after playing both singles and doubles yesterday so the match should be straightforward in my opinion.
Indeed the rain break was important in the third set, but it`s hard to blame the loss on the rain. There are good bets you lose (Tsonga was a good bet for example in my eyes) and there are bad bets you lose. I think that I made a mistake with this one – I still back the analysis completely, but the odds were maybe too low.
Pennetta will win if Halep eventually feels the injury and the fatigue. Otherwise (most likely), it should be a solid Halep win.