Villarreal – Levante

Villarreal will play host to Levante in an early Sunday afternoon kickoff, counting for the 26th round of the Spanish Primera Division.

Fourth placed Villarreal is in top shape right now and will be high on morale after knocking out Napoli via away goals in the Europa League. The 1-1 draw in Italy was the 8th consecutive game without defeat in all competitions for Villarreal, though they did win only 4 of thost 8. Scoring goals has been a massive issue for the Yellow Submarine, as the hosts found the net only 6 times in the last 8 outings and only 3 times in the last 5. On the bright side, Villarreal conceded just 3 goals in the last 8 matches and just 1 in the last 6.

Levante (19th place) is on the back of an emphatic 3-0 win against Getafe in La Liga, which came after two consecutive 0-2 defeats at the hands of Barcelona and Eibar. The win against Getafe finally allowed Levante to vacate the last place in the standings, but the visitors are still in desperate need of points. Levante will hope that their morale boost after last round’s win and Villarreal’s European involvement will be enough to secure a point.

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Team news & lineups:

Samuel and Jonathan Dos Santos are out for Villarreal, while Levante can’t count on Pedro Lopez.

Villarreal: Areola – Gaspar, Musacchio, Bailly, Costa – Suarez, Trigueros, Pina, Castillejo – Soldado, Baptistao

Levante: Marino – Lerma, Navarro, Medjani, Tono – Verdu, Verza, Simao, Morales – Deyverson, Rossi

Villarreal defensive play has been nothing short of remarkable when you think that in the last 8 matches in all competitions, this team has a goal difference of just 6-3. Furthermore, they have a goal difference of just 3-1 in the last 5 matches. With these stats, it’s safe to expect another low scoring goal today, particularly as there are plenty of other circumstances indicating it.

Villarreal will definitely suffer some hangover after the qualification against Napoli and they might be a little slow and rusty. When you consider that Levante is confident, on the back of a big win and far from a high scoring team themselves, it’s hard to make a case for a match with many goals.

What’s more, neither of the last 9 Head 2 Head meetings saw both teams to score. All of those last 9 meetings finished 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. Seven of the nine saw under 2,5 goals being scored, as did the previous 5 meetings. It’s safe to say that goals are not exactly likely when these two teams square off one against eachother.

Stats and common sense suggest an underish encounter here and it seems like the only choice to be made is between the under / over market (under 2,5 goals) and ‘both teams to score – no’. I will choose the second option, only because it has slightly better odds and I feel a 3-0 home win is at least as likely as a 1-1 draw. As such, my tip will be Both teams to score – No. Prediction: Villarreal – Levante 1-0.

Pick: Both teams to score – NO
Odds: 1.86 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.88
Event date: 28 February