Wales – Argentina

The November tests in World Rugby continue this Saturday and arguably the most anticipated clash will be the one between Wales and Argentina in Cardiff.

Wales was humiliated last week at home by Australia in the first test of the Autumn, losing 8-32 and looking horrible overall. The Welsh side (which finished 2nd in the Six Nations at the start of the year) seemed lost without coach Warren Gatland, who is on duty with the Lions and could have even lost heavier to the Wallabies. Wales will get a few players back from injury ahead of this match and will definitely be desperate to bounce back, but the fact is that the team is not exactly world class right now. Wales remains a top dog in World Rugby, but they have lost contact with England in the Northern Hemisphere and Ireland is better than them as well at the moment.

Argentina played some very impressive rugby in the recent Rugby Championship, managing to even go toe to toe with the mighty New Zealand for long stretches in their two meetings. They were very competitive in all matches played in the competition. However, as it is usually the case, Argentina fell just short in most games against their Southern Hemisphere rivals and managed to win just once in 6 matches, against South Africa at home. The Pumas bounced back with a big win in the first Autumn test, destroying Japan 54-20 in Tokyo last week – winning by 34 points despite the handicap being set at 14,5 points before the game.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales has rung the changes after the heavy loss to Australia, as they will make 6 changes to the starting lineup. Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Liam Williams and Jonathan Davies are back for Wales, which will be a huge boost for them. On the other hand, they lost 5 players due to injuries / coach decision, but overall the starting 15 looks better than last week. Argentina will make 3 changes to the side that dismantled Japan, but the team is pretty much the same that played last week and in the Rugby Championship.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins (c)

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Moroni, 13 Matías Orlando, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera

Argentina continues to be massively underrated when playing Northern Hemisphere opponents and there`s no reason for that, as they proved time and time again that they are better than everybody except New Zealand, South Africa and Australia. England can also be included in that category now, but Wales definitely can’t. It is a fact that, at the moment, Argentina is a better team than Wales.

There`s just too much for Wales to improve compared to last week`s performance and it’s almost impossible to fix so many things in just one week. Getting Jones, Warburton, Williams and Davies back will definitely help them, but it can`t fundamentally change their level, execution and gameplan. What is very scary for Wales coming into this game is that Argentina poses the same kind of attacking threat that Australia does, in the same areas of the pitch. What`s more, Argentina has the same ability to disrupt the kicking game of Wales. Australia and Argentina are similar teams and Wales failed miserably against the Aussies.

The pace of Argentina on the wings will be too much for Wales to handle and the Pumas should also have the advantage in the scrum. It will be very difficult for Wales to find an answer if they are second best (by some margin) in these two key segments of the game and if Argentina also disrupts their kicking game, as expected, then I just don’t see a way in this game for Wales.

One thing that could work against the Pumas is their recent busy schedule, but Argentina is always up for this tests and they showed against Japan last week how hungry they are for wins. These tests are a great opportunity for the Pumas to get victories under their belt after performing admirably, but narrowly losing against the top sides in the Rugby Championship. Expect a relentless, dedicated performance from the Pumas, as always. There hasn`t been a documented case in which Argentina did not put in its best effort.

I do expect Wales to be better than they were against Australia, especially as the starting lineup looks better – but they would need a hugely improved performance to win this match. Even at their best, Wales are not a better side than the Pumas right now. Not only does Argentina has the form, morale and the momentum on its side, but they arguably better than Wales in terms of quality and they have the proper style to rattle them – just like Australia did last week.

Expect Wales to play the kicking game and look for penalties, while Argentina will try to open the game up and play running rugby. This seems to be the kind of match where Wales needs absolutely everything to go right in order to win, while Argentina can win in quite a few different ways.

Back Argentina to win, they are the favorites in this match and the odds represent amazing value. Without trying to suggest this is some kind of ‘sure bet’ (after all, Wales does remain a top rugby Nation), I do fully expect the Pumas to claim victory. I am recommending maximum stakes for a great return of investment. Prediction: Wales – Argentina 22 – 30.

Pick: Argentina
Odds: 2.70 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 17
Event date: 12 November