Wales – Australia

Wales will host Australia in Cardiff in a match counting for the November tests and the Welsh will be desperate to claim a victory after 11 consecutive defeats against the Wallabies.

Wales is arguably the second best team in Europe after England, as their 2nd place finish in the 2016 Six Nations attests. However, they are pretty far away from England’s level right now and the team did see better times. Since the Six Nations, Wales played three tests against New Zealand in June (all away) and lost all three by an average margin of 24 points. Wales will be without coach Gatland in this match, as he was appointed British and Irish Lions manager.

The Wallabies got gradually better after a poor start to the Rugby Championship and ended the competition on the second place with 3 wins in 6 matches. Australia is on the back of a 27 point loss against New Zealand in the Bledisloe Cup, but the final score did not do the Wallabies justice. It was the toughest test New Zealand faced in a long time and Australia actually looked like the favorite to win after an hour or so. But, as it always happens with New Zealand, they went into beast mode for 20 minutes or so and that was the story of the match.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will field an experienced starting lineup, but the losses of Warburton, Faletau, Alun Wyn Jones or Thornton mean that the Welsh will have a very thin bench. Australia will start Foley at No.10 (excellent choice), but will move Pocock at No.6, which is a bit of a gamble. Mumm and Kerevi are notable absentees for the Wallabies.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Lopeti Timani, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 David Pocock, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio

Wales has not beaten Australia since 2008 and have lost the last 11 H2H meetings against the Wallabies. Many of them were close, but in the end Wales always found a way to lose.

The fact that Wales lost 11 straight against Australia isn`t a fluke. The Welsh side is absolutely horrible when it comes to facing Southern Hemisphere opposition, as they have lost 29 out of their last 30 (!!!) matches against Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Their style of play clearly has something to do with this.

A big problem for Wales today will be their bench, it is really poor, while Australia has a pretty decent second unit ready to come on. I can see Wales keeping the game close for the first 50 or 60 minutes, but that won`t be enough, as Australia should really pile up the pressure in the final half hour or so.

This Australia team is starting to look pretty good. There are still weaknesses, but the Wallabies are much better than a few months ago, when the Rugby Championship started. Foley going back to No.10 in their last match against New Zealand was a huge plus and a big reason for which Australia looked like it had a chance to win that one. Foley at 10 will be a massive advantage for them today, again – he should be able to nullify the threat of Welsh No.10 Dan Biggar, arguably Wales’ most important man.

Wales will try to dominate the lineut and that might be their only chance for victory, but it`s hard to think it will be enough – even if they get on top in that department. Look for Wales to put points on the board mostly via penalties, but Australia’s great wing play should bring them more tries and that, in all likelyhood, will mean an away win.

I expect Australia to claim a 12th consecutive wins against Wales, who should continue to struggle against Southern Hemisphere opposition. The styles of play, the slightly superior quality of Australia and the bench will most likely make the difference.

The odds for a straight Australian victory are very good, so I`m happy to take this bet. My tip here is Australia to win. Prediction: Wales – Australia 19 – 23.

Pick: Australia
Odds: 1.76 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.84
Event date: 5 November