Wales – Fiji

Wales will be looking to back up the upset against England with another win against Fiji, which would take them one step closer to qualifying from the Rugby World Cup group of death – which also features Australia.

Written off by everybody, struggling with injuries and trailing by 10 points against England in the second half, Wales put on a brilliant display of character to end up with the victory against the 2015 Rugby World Cup hosts. This brilliant generation led by coach Gatland proved yet again that they can come up big when it matters despite any kind of adversity and is now extremely close to qualifying and force England to exit from the group stages. A bonus point win over Fiji and a decent loss against Australia will surely be enough for Wales.

Fiji is the best Pacific side right now and has seen a lot of progress in the last decade. They played two good games so far in the RWC, but ended up on the losing side both against England (11-35) and against Australia (13-28). The big problem for Fiji today is that they will miss Matalawu and Nadolo, arguably their two best players. Nemani Nadolo is the leader of this team, a true beast and had a monumental World Cup so far – often looking like Jonah Lomu reincarnated and scoring 16 of Fiji’s 24 points.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will only make 3 changes compared to the England game, showing just how serious they are treating this game. Fiji will find it difficult to cope without their world class stars, Nadolo and Matawalu.

Wales: 15 Matthew Morgan, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Gethin Jenkins.

Fiji: 15 Metuisela Talebula, 14 Timoci Nagusa, 13 Vereniki Goneva, 12 Lepani Botia, 11 Aseli Tikoirotuma, 10 Ben Volavola, 9 Nemia Kenatale, 8 Netani Talei, 7 Akapusi Qera (c), 6 Dominiko Waqaniburotu, 5 Leone Nakarawa, 4 Tevita Cavubati, 3 Manasa Saulo, 2 Sunia Koto, 1 Campese Maafu.

Fiji is a great, talented team with a lot of potential and they can challenge any team in the World on their day. Unfortunately for them, they were drawn into an impossible group and showed that they are still not there with the big boys yet. Despite playing Well, Fiji ended up losing by 24 points with England and by 15 points against Australia – I can`t see why Wales wouldn`t get a similar result, especially with Matalawu and Nadolo out for Fiji! The Pacific side just isn`t the same without these two impact players, especially Nadolo, who was virtually a one man show for them so far, as previously stated.

Wales could be a bit tired after having only 5 days of rest, but they have World Class players that know how to deal with these situations. Fiji could also feel the exhaustion after already playing two World Class team and with their two best players out. Without resting players and with full focus to get the bonus point, i expect Wales to cover the set handicap, which is more than reasonable, especially if we buy a couple of points. My tip is Wales to cover the 12,5 handicap. Prediction: Wales – Fiji 29 – 10.

Pick: Wales -12.5
Odds: 1.89 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.01
Event date: 1 October