Wales – Georgia

Wales Georgia world cup betting preview

Wales will meet Georgia on Monday in Pool D of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The two teams have been drawn alongside Australia, Fiji and Uruguay.

Wales are the reigning Six Nations champions, winning all their matches in the competition this year, and will enter the World Cup as one of the teams to beat. The preparation period was a bit underwhelming with 3 losses in 4 matches against England and Ireland (twice each), but it would be a huge stretch to say Wales isn`t in good form. Warren Gatland’s side has really been excellent over the last couple of seasons, including in last year’s November Internationals when they beat Australia and South Africa.

Georgia will know that repeating a Top 3 finish in the group stages for the second straight World Cup will be difficult, but the Lelos nevertheless will be tough opposition for all sides in Pool D. Georgia’s progress has always flown under the radar, but they have really developed into a strong side, and they are not far from the level of Italy, for example. The Georgians recently reclaimed their Rugby Europe Championship crown from Romania, dominating the second European competition with authority. The Lelos did have a pretty rough preparation period for the World Cup, losing pretty heavily against Scotland, twice (by 34 and by 27).

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Team news & lineups:

Although there are a couple of tweaks here and there in the Welsh lineup, Warren Gatland has decided to field a strong starting XV for this clash. Georgia, of course, will throw all their available weapons at Wales – including superstar flanker Mamuka Gorgodze, who dediced to return for this World Cup after a two year retirement from the National Team. But unfortunately for the Georgians they have suffered a few injuries at the worst time, including captain Sharikadze.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Josh Navidi, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (C), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tom Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones

Georgia: 15 Soso Matiashvili, 14 Miriani Modebadze, 13 David Kacharava, 12 Tamaz Mchedlidze, 11 Giorgi Kveseladze, 10 Tedo Abzhandadze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Beka Gorgadze, 7 Mamuka Gorgodze, 6 Giorgi Tkhilaishvili, 5 Konstantine Mikautadze, 4 Giorgi Nemsadze, 3 Beka Gigashvili, 2 Shalva Mamukashvili, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili (C).

The two teams met relatively recently in 2017, their only meeting ever, and the Georgians actually put Wales under big pressure, in Wales. It was a 13-6 win for the Welsh, but it could have been 13-13 if not for a controversial scrum in the last minute of the game. Even though Wales didn`t use most of its stars in that match, Georgia will surely look back and draw confidence from the result and their performance.

Wales is going through a bit of a turmoil after assistant Rob Howley was forced to leave Japan due to betting offenses. It remains to be seen if that will have any impact, but quite honestly it shouldn`t.

Wales will likely be in for a tough, physical match here against the strong Georgian forwards. Georgia can match or even better Wales in the scrum and in the battle of forwards, but of course their problems have always lied on the wings. For all their top class forwards, Georgia has to rely on backs mostly from the semi amateur Georgian League. From 11 to 15, only Mchedlidze plays abroad.

We saw in this World Cup so far that top teams haven`t really been at their best against weaker opposition, so this could be again the case with Wales, especially since Georgia are no joke and pose a real threat.

Goergia doesn`t concede tries that easily, and Wales isn`t necessarily known for putting up huge scorelines. Their approach tends to be a bit more pragmatic and in the last three years they reached 40 points only once, in a 74-24 blowout of Tonga last season.

Look for a game of rugby which will often be rugged and physical. Wales will obviously have their moments in which they`ll break the rhythm and they`ll get ahead through their vastly superior backs. But blowing out a strong Georgia side will not be easy, especially in the first game of the World Cup.

On the other hand, one thing that Georgia struggles with is scoring points against the top sides. We saw them recently scoring 19 combined points in two warm up tests against Scotland, and two years ago in Wales they scored 6 points in a low scoring 13-6 affair. The Welsh defense is exceptional, right there with the best of the world, so it might be tough for Georgia to find opportunities.

For this last reason, I think betting on the under 50,5 points might be smarter than taking Georgia to cover the 28,5 point handicap, although I guess that remains to be seen.

My tip will be under 50,5 points to be scored. Odds are dropping on this line, which might move towards 49,5 points come game time. Prediction: Wales – Georgia 34 – 9.

Pick: under 50,5 points
Odds: 1.86 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.88
Event date: 23 September

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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