Wales – Ireland

Wales and Ireland will square off in an absolute blockbuster at Millenium Stadium on Friday night, a match counting for the second to last round of the 2017 Six Nations. Wales has 1 win and 2 losses and is out of the title race, while Ireland is still very much in it, with 2 wins and 1 loss – set to face England in a potential deciding match next round in Dublin.

Wales was written off before this tournament due to the mediocre showings in the November friendlies and indeed the hosts did not quite surpass the expectations. Wales started off with a win in Italy, followed by an excellent home showing against England, a match they were very unlucky to lose. Last time out though, Wales played a horrible second half against an injury plagued Scotland, losing by 16 points a match they seemed to have control of at half time.

Ireland came into this tournament as the 3rd best team in World Rugby after a brilliant second part of 2016 and given the Six Nations schedule, many saw them as favorites to win the trophy over England. Unfortunately for Ireland they started in the worst way possible, playing a horrible first half in the first match against Scotland and eventually losing that match. On the bright side, the Irish did well to recover, demolishing Italy and claiming a solid 10 point win over an improving France.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will name unchanged lineups for this clash, sticking with the players that took the court in the last round. Ireland will be happy that influential playmaker Sexton looked fit and solid when coming back from injury in the last round.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath

Matches between Wales and Ireland have been close lately, with the two teams alternating wins. However, the last match in Cardiff was won by Ireland 35-21. The H2H doesn`t tell a relevant story though, as in recent times Ireland has never been better than they are now, while Wales clearly took at least a small step back.

Wales did not get the greatest results lately and their aging squad is a reason for concern. Wales often seems to lack dynamism, playing a rather stale and old school brand of rugby. However, they are very difficult to beat in Cardiff, as England saw a few weeks ago. And, for all their faults, the Welsh are not playing bad rugby – they can do serious damage to anybody and they are a little bit underrated at the moment by rugby fans (not by the bookies though).

Ireland did have their problems in this tournament, playing that awful first half with Scotland and also struggling for some time against France, making poor choices to go for tries instead of taking the easy 3 points. But they have been overall excellent in the last year or so.

Analyzing the matchup shows just how superior Ireland is, as they are definitely better on the wings, but their scrum and forward play are also on par with the Welsh. Sexton can kick as well as Biggar and has better playmaking capabilities. It`s just hard to see where and how a slow Wales team can find solutions here against a dynamic, superior opponent.

If Ireland doesn`t have a bad game, they should win this – and that`s assuming Wales turn up and play their best at home, because if they don`t, Ireland will have a field day.

I expect a close game with Wales proving to be a tough test at Millenium Stadium, but Ireland is simply better and has everything to fight for – a loss would be the ultimate anticlimax for them ahead of the potential title decider against England in Dublin. I reckon Ireland should win this by a margin of a try or so.

The bookies opened with a crazy price of over 2.00 for Ireland and the odds dropped instantly – the ones who took Ireland early were the smart bettors on this market.

Right now the number for an Ireland win is around 1.65 and honestly there`s not much value left – although I do think Ireland has more chances to win than even the 1.65 – 1.70 price suggests, and I suspect odds might drop even lower. After all, an out of form England was priced at just 1.40 to win in Cardiff a few weeks ago, and Ireland might be better than the English.

All in all, Ireland should really win this game and I`m betting the safe option here. My tip is Ireland to win, I trust the bet enough to go with maximum stakes. Prediction: Wales – Ireland 19 – 27.

Pick: Ireland
Odds: 1.70 @ Bwin
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.00
Event date: 10 March