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The last weekend of the Six Nations will feature a classic triple-header on Saturday, with Wales taking on Italy in the first match of the day. Wales will likely finish second with a win, while Italy has already claimed the wooden spoon and they will finish last regardless of the result.
A slow start at Twickenham last week denied Wales the chance to win the Six Nations. They fell down 0-19 and in the end did not have the time to come back, even though they put on a marvelous performance in the last minutes. Wales ended up losing 21-25, but if the match lasted 5 more minutes, chances are the Welsh would have won it. Today’s hosts were great in this tournament, clearly the second best team after England, played some great rugby and easily defeated France and Scotland. All they did wrong was 30 poor minutes against Ireland (draw) and 50 poor minutes against England (loss). Those stretches of bad play cost them.
Italy started the Six Nations as colossal underdogs, as the current team seemed to be arguably the worst in the last decade. They played a fantastic first round match in France, where they should have won, but ended up losing by 2 points. However, performances steadily decreased, eventually proving the doubters right. Italy visibly got worse and worse by each passing game, until they were dismantled by Ireland last week, 15-58. Now, with an old team, low morale and after 4 grueling battles, Italy will have a really tough time sustaining any kind of pressure in Wales.
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Team news & lineups:
Wales will make 4 changes to the lineup that lost in England. Webb comes back from injury and will start, but Jones, Cuthbert and captain Warburton will miss out. Italy, who was already struggling with injuries, will now have to also do without their second best player Campagnaro, a huge blow.
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Hallam Amos, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate (c), 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Rob Evans
Italy: 15 David Odiete, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Andrea Pratichetti, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Guglielmo Palazzani, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Alessandro Zanni, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Valerio Bernabo, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Davide Giazzon, 1 Andrea Lovotti
Wales won the previous 9 H2H meetings, the last one being a close 23-19 victory in a World Cup warm-up match a few months ago. However, Wales won the previous Six Nations H2H match by 41 points, in Rome! It was 61-20 for today`s hosts.
It`s pretty obvious that Italy does not deserve a regular spot in the Six Nations right now and they should be forced to play a promotion / relegation playoff with Georgia and Romania – with Georgia having an honest shot at beating them.
The Italians showed passion in the first couple of matches, had some good moments, but eventually it was the same story – they fade away late in matches against top teams and they fade away in the late stages of the tournaments. This year, the lack of quality and poor coaching exposed them even more than usual.
After such a bad performance in Dublin, you can expect Italy to be even worse today, as they just don`t have the energy anymore. Sergio Parisse himself (one of the most impactful players in team sports) looked pedestrian in Ireland and at 32 years old he might not be at 100% for today. I don`t think Italy’s old and tired legs will stand a chance of being competitive against a really great Welsh team – a team which is more fresh and vastly superior in all facets of the game. Also, Italy struggles with fitness and will have to field 34 and 35 year old playes like Martin Castrogiovanni. Missing key players is a huge blow for the Italians, who are dependent on a few guys in order to compete at this level.
The only question here is whether Wales can cover a massive handicap. The bookies didn`t joke around and set a really high line, but even so I reckon Wales will cover it. Campagnaro’s absence alone could well make up for 7 points or so. I can see the hosts easily dominating this match and ruining Italy in the last 30 minutes, so my tip will be Wales to cover the 34,5 points handicap. Prediction: Wales – Italy 51 – 8.
Pick: Wales -34,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 19 March
