Wales – Scotland

Wales will host Scotland on Saturday in the first match of the 2018 Six Nations, and both sides will look to kick start their campaign with a win which could prove vital in the final standings.

The Welsh aren`t in a good moment right now, stagnating over the last couple of years while most other teams have improved. Wales finished 5th last year in the Six Nations and looked rather poor all year. In the Autumn Internationals they failed to impress yet again, struggling to beat Georgia, losing clearly to New Zealand and Australia and barely edging a not so good South African – all games being played at home. While the Welsh remain a top side and must not be underestimated (particularly at home), fact is they have not been at their best for quite some time.

In contrast to Wales, Scotland has shown real and massive progress over the last few years, to the point in which they are now legit candidates to win the Six Nations title. The Scots had a great season last year, culminating with an excellent showing in the Autumn Internationals, when they beat Samoa by 6, Australia by 29 (!!) and where inches away by defeating New Zealand in the last minute, losing that one by 5 points against the All Blacks.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams are struggling with injuries. Scotland will miss a large number of key members from their forward setup, just like they did in the recent year-end internationals. Wales also deals with injuries to key players and will field a couple of inexperienced guys in the lineup. The likes of Davies, Biggar, Lydiate, Faletay, Web or Warburton are out for Wales, all huge absences.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Steff Evans, 10 Rhys Patchell, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Josh Navidi, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Cory Hill, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Huw Jones, 11 Byron McGuigan, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Ben Toolis, 3 Jon Welsh, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Gordon Reid

At the moment Scotland is a better team than Wales, that is a fact which nobody can realistically argue. The Scots are on the up, getting better each and every year, while Wales seems a bit old (or at least their game does) and has definitely stagnated in the past couple of years.

The arguments against Scotland here are the fact that Wales is always very strong at home, and also the Scots have a lot of injuries with their props and forwards.

Regarding the injuries, Scotland had the same issues in the Autumn Internationals a few months ago, and that didn`t affect them one bit. The replacement forwards did a great job, the backs were world class as always, and Scotland got great results while also playing well. What`s more, Wales is also dealing with massive injuries, at least 6 key guys being out, so all in all chances are Scotland`s absences will not bear much weight here.

As for home court advantage that will definitely be important, but can that factor be enough for Wales to get a win against a superior team, which has better morale and in better form? That remains to be seen, but a fair case can be made that the Welsh do not deserve to be favorites here.

Wales has won 9 of the last 10 H2H meetings with Scotland so the low odds on Wales might have something to do with this stat, but it`s not really relevant, as those wins came in a time when Wales was having a golden generation, while Scotland was badly struggling. Things are completely different now, and it`s no surprise that Scotland won the last meeting.

Last season Scotland beat Wales by 16 points at home and fully deserved it as well. I don`t think Wales now having home court advantage will mean a 15-20 point swing here, especially when you consider that Wales actually seems to be a little bit worse than last year, while Scotland seems to be a bit better.

Look for a match in which Wales will use a lot of place kicking and pick & go`s, while the Scots will mostly look to run the ball. Scotland’s scrum and their forwards will hold their own against Wales, while the Scottish backs will run havoc in the wide game and punish their more rigid opponents. As such, I do expect Scotland to eventually get the win here.

My tip is Scotland to cover the +2,5 point handicap here, and I will invest 8 units on this bet. Prediction: Wales – Scotland 23 – 28.

Pick: Scotland +2,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 3 February