Wales – South Africa

Wales South Africa preview and prediction

Wales will take on South Africa at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.

The Welsh have been solid so far in the Autumn tests, and it has been a solid team for the British overall. Wales started with a second place finish in the Six Nations back in February, followed that up by destroying Argentina in the Summer tests despite playing with the “B” team (!!), and now in November the good form continued. Wales defeated Scotland 21-10 and Australia 9-6 before wiping the floor with Tonga last week, 74-24.

South Africa has been on the rise this year after the appointment of Rassie Erasmus as manager. The Springboks were very good in the Rugby Championship, finishing second and playing two very close matches with New Zealand – even managing to win one on the road against the Kiwis! Over the last month South Africa lost 11-12 in England, but went on to defeat both France (29-26) and Scotland (26-20) in the next two matches.

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Team news & lineups:

Leigh Halfpenny has been ruled out for Wales ahead of this clash. South Africa will field the same lineup which defeated Scotland last week.

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Nicky Smith

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 HandrΓ© Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff

Recent matches between Wales and South Africa have always been very close (the last two were decided by 2 points each), and there isn`t any reason to expect something different this time around. In fact, the two sides might have never looked so evenly matched before.

Look for a physical battle between two top notch forward packs, and tries might be hard to come by.

Wales was involved in low scoring matches in this November against Scotland (31 total points) and Australia (15 total points). The 74-24 drubbing of Tonga doesn`t matter because of the difference in quality and because Wales fielded a different kind of team.

South Africa also played a slugfest against England (11-12) before scoring more points against France (55 total) and Scotland (46 total). However, both France and Scotland play more expansive rugby than Wales. The England game is a better indication.

Everything points to a close, low scoring game here. The line is set at 43.5 points, and the under would have been a winning bet in 4 of the last 5 meetings – with the other one seeing 46 total points.

For what it`s worth, Halfpenny`s absence could cost Wales 3 or 6 points which only he can score from 50+ meters out, if the Welsh will have penalties in that range.

My tip here will be under 43.5 points to be scored. Prediction: Wales – South Africa 19 – 18.

Pick: under 43,5 points
Odds: 1.91 @ 22Bet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.37
Event date: 24 November

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

5 comments

  1. I see it also rains today in Cardiff .. more reason for low score

  2. ok I didnt know hahaa, my mistake πŸ˜‚

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