Wales – Uruguay

The 2015 Rugby World Cup continues, after seeing one of the biggest upsets in sporting History on Saturday, when Japan defeated South Africa – who did not even have odds to win that match. Uruguay will draw confidence from that result, but they will know that their chances to emulate it is virtually non existent, with Wales getting a -64.5 handicap line from the bookies.

The last 5 years have been some of the best of Welsh Rugby history and the team was very unfortunate to finish 4th in the previous World Cup, with everybody concluding that they were the second best team of the tournament. They are not the same team anymore and have lost some steam recently, but they still managed to finish tied in points with England and Ireland for the 2015 Six Nations – finishing third only due to points difference. However, success in the World Cup seems unlikely.

Wales has a nightmare group with Australia and England, both better teams than them and the welsh have also been hit by injuries. Two of their best attacking options and kickers, Halfpenny and Webb are injured.

Uruguay, along with Namibia is the worst team in the competition, being a class below even the likes of Romania or USA. Their squad is composed almost exclusively from guys playing in the domestic league and recent results have proved again that Uruguay is not quite cut out for this competition. The South Americans are coming after two bad defeats to Japan in preparation for the World Cup, 0-40 and 8-30.

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Lineups:

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Cory Allen, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Hallam Amos, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 James King, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton (c), 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Jake Ball, 3 Samson Lee, 2 Scott Baldwin, 1 Paul James.

Uruguay: 15 Gaston Mieres, 14 Santiago Gibernau, 13 Joaquin Prada, 12 Andres Vilaseca, 11 Rodrigo Silva, 10 Felipe Berchesi, 9 Agustin Ormaechea, 8 Alejandro Nieto, 7 Matias Beer, 6 Juan Manuel Gaminara, 5 Jorge Zerbino, 4 Santiago Vilaseca, 3 Mario Sagario, 2 Carlos Arboleya, 1 Alejo Corral.

Listen, Uruguay is as poor of a team as you will get in this tournament and Wales will surely win this by 50+ points, aside for a big surprise. But I feel the 65 point handicap is a bit high – Wales is not in great shape and they miss arguably their best offensive players and kickers. Uruguay will leave it their all on the pitch while Wales will probably be a bit rusty in the first match, so I do not expect an 80 point blowout or anything like that.

Wales is a top notch defensive side, this is their main strength without Halfpenny and Webb, so they could very well keep Uruguay scoreless or in the 3 points region. But on offense, expect a bit of rustiness from Wales, some missed conversions by the 3rd/4th choice kicker and overall a desperate Uruguay side doing everything to not allow too many tries.

With the handicap line being set at 64.5, it`s peculiar that the under/over line is set at 80.5, which means that bookies would expect about 7-10 points from Uruguay – extremely unlikely. With all these in mind, my tip is under 80,5 points. Prediction: Wales – Uruguay 63-3.

Pick: under 80,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 20 September