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The Warriors were boosted by Stephen Curry`s recent return to the lineup, but they will be without two key starters today, Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala. In addition to them, Jermaine O’Neal is questionable but will most probably also miss out on the game.
Warriors are a great team but their attractive brand of basketball has made them to be just a little bit overrated. Warriors are 8-6 this season but, like always, they have been poor on the road (3-4). Golden State is on the back of three successive defeats, never coming closer than within 7 points of victory. Their short term form is worrying, and if Klay Thompson wouldn`t have shot lights out from the field, Warriors would have suffered three blowout losses.
The Pelicans had a great off season, bringing in all start point guard Jrue Holiday, and will surely be a contender for the playoffs this season. The hosts still need some time to adjust to their new key player and are 6-7 overall, but at home they have been impressive with a 5-2 win-loss record. The Pelicans are on the back of a blowout defeat against the Spurs on the road yesterday, but they have previously put together a run of three straight wins.
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The Pelicans are back to back and in this department Warriors will have the edge, but otherwise it will be very hard for Golden State to compete without Bogut and Iguodala, especially on the road and considering their current form. This would have been something close to a 50-50 game if the Warriors were healthy, but since they are struggling with injuries you have to give an edge to the Pelicans to get a win in this one. The odds on NO have clear value and you can see the price going down at high speed. Bottom line, Golden State is the better team but not by much, as New Orleans is also solid. Golden State is also fresher, having 2 more days of rest, but the other arguments all favor New Orleans: home court advantage, form and Golden State’s injury problems.
I can see NO dominating the paint, they have a superstar in Anthony Davis who can step up against a Warriors frontcourt who will miss Bogut and probably O’Neal. Davis had a poor game against San Antonio so it`s unlikely he will record a second performance of that caliber – he is due for a big night, and this will create match-up problems under the paint for the Warriors. Maybe Thompson will also cool off for the visitors after shooting 10 for 13 in the last outing. The spread is to small and does not have any value considering the odds for a simple win, so take New Orleans to bounce back with a solid success after the San Antonio loss, at some great odds. Value bet here. My pick is something like Warriors at New Oleans 100-105.
Pick: NO Pelicans
Odds: 2.15 @ Winner
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.05
Event date: 27 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 0 for 3 in NBA picks this season
