Wizards – Celtics

Washington Wizards will attempt to tie the Eastern Conference semifinal series against Boston at 2-2, after falling 0-2 on the road, but winning Game 3 at home by 27 points.

The Wizards (4th seed) have not been impressive at all in the first round against Atlanta and they were a bit lucky to win it 4-2. They weren`t great in the first two games in Boston either, although they were extremely close to win Game 2 on the road, when they ended up losing in overtime. However, Wizards destroyed Boston at home in Game 3, winning by 27 and showing why they have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season (tied for 3rd best in the regular season, East + West). In the playoffs, Washington is still undefeated in DC.

Boston (1st seed) was close to going out in Round 1, when they lost the first two games at home against 8th seeded Chicago, but they came back to win the next 4 and continued the run against Washington to make it 6 in a row. However, they got blown out in Game 3 in Washington and considering the fact that they barely won Game 2 at home, it seems Boston has lost momentum and the Wizards are now the team on the up in this series.

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Team news: Washington will miss Kelly Oubre Jr, suspended after being involved in an altercation in Game 3 – in which he was ejected after playing just 5 minutes.

The Wizards have a rather weak bench, and on paper losing Oubre weakens it even more. However, the rookie is not exactly an important piece for Washington, especially in this series. Oubre Jr was the Wizard with the worst +/- in each of the first two games, which means Washington was at its worst when he was on the floor. What`s more, Washington won Game 3 by 27 points with Oubre Jr barely playing 5 minutes.

Most fans and media analysts are going back and forth in this series, changing their opinions on what will happen and on who`s better after each game, but it was (and continues to be) actually a pretty easy series to call. It`s not necessarily easy to predict who wins it, but it`s rather easy to predict the scenario after which it will unfold.

These two teams are more or less even in terms of overall quality, but Washington is a team that plays so much better at home than away, and Boston is also a good home team, so that totally flips the power balance depending on who hosts each game. It was to be expected, and still is, that each team will win at home and there will maybe be one road win in the entire series.

In the 7 meetings this season (regular season + playoffs), there was no victory on the road for either team, with Washington and Boston each winning all their home games.

I believe Washington will ride the momentum after Game 3 and will tie the series at 2-2 here. Nodoby in Boston has an answer for John Wall and Washington’s role players always perform much better at home, which is why opponents always find it hard to win in DC. I find no reason for that to change in Game 4.

I doubt Oubre`s absence will have much impact and I find the ~1.55 odds for a Washington win to be brilliant, after the price in Game 3 was around 1.40 and Washington won it by 27 points. Game 4 may be closer, but Washington has the momentum and should pull it off in DC.

I wanted to pick Washington in Game 3 but I didn`t trust the handicap and the odds for the straight win were too low. This time, they are perfectly playable, so my tip is Wizards to win. Max stakes for me on this bet. Prediction: Washington Wizards – Boston Celtics 109 – 101.

Pick: Wizards
Odds: 1.59 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.90
Event date: 7 May