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The Washington Wizards host the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night in a winner take all play-in game, with the victor set to advance to the Eastern Conference playoffs as an 8th seed, while the loser will go home.
The Wizards (34-38, 19-17 home) had an abysmal start to the season, but the partnership between Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook started working towards the end of the campaign (8 consecutive wins in April), so Washington managed to make a run and get in this play in tournament. However, WAS was disappointing two nights ago in their first try to secure a playoff spot, losing by 18 in Boston.
The Pacers (34-38, 21-15 away) have been ravaged by injuries in the second part of the season and they were barely able to hold on for a play in spot. Credit to them, though: they came out strong and punched Charlotte in the mouth in the first play-in game two nights ago, putting 144 points on them.
Injury report: The Wizards are healthy barring the long term injuries of Advija and Bryant. The Pacers will continue to miss three of their best players: LeVert, Warren and Turner, plus Lamb. There are also questionmarks over Sumner and Brogdon. You would expect Brogdon to play in such a big game, but if he’s limited, that would be a big problem for Indiana.
I reckon there’s a bit too much recency bias and overreaction after Tuesday’s games. The Wizards got blown out in Boston, while the Pacers steamrolled Charlotte. If we erase those two games, Washington is probably a 1.45-1.50 favorite.
I think the Pacers are just too banged up to beat the Wizards here, even if Indiana has a surprisingly solid record away from home this season.
Indiana’s defense has been a disaster lately, so look for Washington’s Bradley Beal to have a big game, he returned from injury in the last game of the regular season and now with two matches under his belt he should be ready. Wesbrook was bad against Boston, so the law of averages suggests he should have a big night too – particularly against this Pacers defense, which is so bad I have to mention it twice. That’s valid for the Wizards team as a whole too, they won’t shoot 14% from three like the other night.
It’s worth mentioning that the Wizards won all three H2H meetings with Indiana this season – all very high scoring.
I rate Sabonis very highly for the Pacers, but he just ain’t got the help right now, and unless Indy gets super hot from three, I see them losing this. They don’t have the personnel, their form is suspect, and they don’t match up well against Washington. Sticking with the straight win as opposed to the handicap, as you can’t really trust the Wizards to be consistent from start to finish. Prediction: Washington Wizards – Indiana Pacers 125 – 120.
Pick: Wizards
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 20 May
