Watford – Leeds

Watford will play host to Leeds United in this one legged FA Cup Last 16 tie, with the home side rated as a 1.60 odds favorite by the bookies.

Watford has been remarkable this season, sitting on a very respectable 9th place in the Premier League and posting this decent cup run as well, thanks to 1-0 wins over Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. Defense has been Watford’s main weapon, as they allowed just 28 goals in the league, counting for the 5th best defensive record in the Premiership. The hosts are on the back of a 2-1 road win over Crystal Palace, only the second over 2,5 match from the last 8 in which they have been involved.

Leeds is on the 16th place in the Championship, having another season to forget and this FA Cup run is pretty much all they have left. Things are not looking good though, as Leeds has just 3 wins in the last 11 matches in all competitions, 2 of them in the Cup against inferior sides like Bolton and Rotherham. Similar to Watford, Leeds is counting more on its defense than its offense, which is not a capable one at all – the visitors scoring an average of less than 1 goal per game in the Championship, not many teams posting worse stats.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams are expected to field solid lineups, but Watford will probably use more rotation than Leeds. Hoban, Gilmartin and Ekstrand are out for Watford, while Britos and Jurado are highly doubtful. Turnbull and Wood are unavailable for Leeds United.

Watford: Pantilimon – Paredes, Prodl, Cathcart, Holebas – Anya, Suarez, Guedioura, Abdi – Deeney, Amrabat

Leeds: Silvestri – Berardi, Bellusci, Bamba, Taylor – Bridcutt, Diagouraga – Dallas, Cook, Mowatt – Antenucci

Both teams prefer to play a rather defensive brand of football and are not usually involved in high scoring matches. I don’t see that trend changing here. Leeds will come to defend the draw, while Watford has no reason to force things. A slow possession game would work in their favor and that is the most likely approach.

Watford has been particularly careful when playing at home, as there’s an average of under 2 goals per game scored in their matches. Stats say Leeds scores more away than at home, but they will not be the ones controlling the temp here. My tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored and I have to say I am pretty satisfied with these odds on the under / over market. Prediction: Watford – Leeds United 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.92 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.44
Event date: 20 February