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Two struggling sides in the form of Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg will square off in the Bundesliga 30th round and both teams have something to fight for – though the match does seem a bit more important for the hosts.
Werder is currently on the playout position, 2 points behind safety, falling in the standings after some poor performances in the last month. The home side claimed just 1 point in the last 4 matches. While it`s true that they met sides like Dortmund or Bayern, the 1-2 home defeat to relegation rivlas Augsburg last round was a morale killer and showed that Werder is having serious problems right now. These problems are mainly due to their defense, which is tied for the worst in the league.
Wolfsburg’s disappointing season in the Bundesliga continued recently, as the visitors failed to win any of the last 4 domestic games (2 wins, 2 losses). Currently 8th in the standings, Wolfsburg still has a decent shot to play European football next season if they step up in these last 5 rounds. The visitors are 6 points behind the teams placed from 5th to 7th and have a real chance to make up important ground this round – as Gladbach already lost and Schalke plays on the road against Bayern.
It remains to be seen what Wolfsburg’s reaction will be after getting knocked out by Real Madrid midweek, 0-3 at Bernabeu after the marvelous 2-0 home win. There might be tired legs and a mental letdown, or the team might rally and finally start performing in Bundesliga, making a push for an European spot.
Place your bet on Werder Bremen – Wolfsburg with the highest odds at Unibet now!
Team news & lineups:
Johannsson, Wolf, Djilobodji and Bargfrede will not be in Werder’s lineup, while Wolfsburg will have to do without Jung, Ascues, Dante, Draxler and Bendtner.
Werder Bremen: Wiedwald – Gebre Selassie, Galvez, Vestergaard, S. Garcia – Grillitsch – Öztunali, Fritz, Junuzovic, Bartels – Pizarro
VFL Wolfsburg: Benaglio – Träsch, Naldo, Knoche, R. Rodriguez – Guilavogui, Luiz Gustavo – Vieirinha, Arnold, Schürrle – Dost
Listen, Wolfsburg is not able to get wins in the Bundesliga right now and they will most likely be tired both mentally and physically after the clash against Real Madrid. Playing on the road has also been an issue this season (2-4-8 record in Bundesliga). But even so, are they weak enough for Werder be considered favorite? I seriously doubt it.
The hosts aren`t playing well right now, can`t beat anybody and their poor defense suits a team like Wolfsburg perfectly. The visitors will come here to win, as it`s their only chance if they want to play football in Europe next season. They will attack and Werder’s defense can`t block anybody.
It seems (and it is) a poor matchup for the hosts and this is confirmed by the Head 2 Head results. Wolfsburg won the last 6 meetings with an aggregate score of 22-5, including a 6-0 win earlier this season! The bookies took into account Wolfsburg’s potential Champions League hangover when setting the odds, but seem to have forgotten about the Head 2 Head matchup.
Considering Werder’s dreadful form, the quality difference and the matchup, it`s difficult to see why the hosts are considered more likely to win. The odds on a visiting victory are just too high. You can`t say for sure that Wolfsburg will win, as it`s impossible to predict how they will react after the Champions League exit. However, the price is definitely worth the risk. My tip is Wolfsburg to win with a -0,25 asian handicap. A bet on goals also looks good, but the odds are low. Prediction: Werder Bremen – Wolfsburg 1-3.
Pick: Wolfsburg (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.41 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 11.28
Event date: 16 April
